Special elections in Florida, including Mar-a-Lago’s district, spell trouble for GOP

Heading into Tuesday’s state legislative special election in Florida, Republicans had reason to be cautiously optimistic. The race was in a Palm Beach district that Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024 (it’s the same district where Mar-a-Lago is located), and only about a third of local voters are registered Democrats.

And yet, the contest turned into the latest in a series of red-to-blue flips. MS NOW reported:

Democrats flipped a Republican-held seat in the Florida state House, with Emily Gregory winning a closely watched special election Tuesday night in a district that includes President Donald Trump’s home of Mar-a-Lago, according to The Associated Press.

Gregory beat Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in the 87th District, which includes Palm Beach. With almost all votes counted, Gregory narrowly led by 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes, according to the AP.

The president may try to downplay the results, but it was earlier this week when Trump not only voted for the Republican candidate but also described the contest as “a very important Special Election” while endorsing the GOP nominee.

As it turns out, Democrats came to the same conclusion about the race’s significance.

In a press statement, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams boasted, “Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms. A Trump +11 district in his own backyard shouldn’t be in play for Democrats, but tonight proves Republicans are vulnerable everywhere.”

Complicating matters further for the GOP and its leaders, there was a trio of special elections in Florida on Tuesday, and all three contests were held in Republican districts. A Democrat scored a major upset in the Mar-a-Lago district, and Republican Hilary Holley easily won a state House special election in the central part of the state. In the Tampa area, though, there was a state Senate special election, and while the race hasn’t yet been formally called, the initial vote tally shows Democrat Brian Nathan narrowly ahead.

In other words, there’s a real possibility that among three special elections in GOP districts this week, Democrats will end up with victories in two of them.

If it seems as if this has been happening a lot lately, it’s not your imagination: For Democrats, 2026 is off to a very encouraging start.

In January, two of the party’s candidates won lopsided victories in special elections in Minnesota, the first two contests of the year, restoring the state House to an even partisan split.

Soon after, in Texas, Republicans invested a considerable amount of resources to keep a state Senate seat in the suburbs of Fort Worth. They failed, as Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a union leader and Air Force veteran, won a double-digit victory in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. (The president personally tried to rally support for the GOP candidate, but then pretended he didn’t after she lost badly.)

In early February, Republicans in Louisiana saw a unique opportunity to flip a state legislative seat from blue to red — in a district Trump won by 13 points — but when voters had their say, the Democratic candidate prevailed by 24 points.

In early March, a Democratic state legislative candidate flipped a seat in Arkansas. A week later, a Democratic state legislative candidate flipped a seat in New Hampshire, in an outcome that The New Hampshire Union Leader called “stunning” and a “big upset” given the Republican advantage in the district.

The Downballot noted in its latest analysis that if the vote tallies in the Tampa area hold, Democrats will have flipped 30 seats from red to blue in special elections since Trump returned to the White House. Over that same period, the number of seats flipped from blue to red remains zero.

Some will no doubt argue that it’s best not to read too much into a special election held in the winter, several months before November’s races. It’s a fair point. But what matters is how the results fit into the broader political landscape. Republicans are tied to an unpopular president, a growing number of their congressional members are retiring, key elements of the GOP agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash, and they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.

If party insiders aren’t concerned about their standing ahead of this year’s midterm elections, they’re not paying close enough attention.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

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