On Monday morning, a reporter asked Donald Trump why the U.S. war with Iran is ongoing if, as he’s said, Iran’s military has been obliterated. It wasn’t entirely clear whether the president fully understood the question, since he responded by recommitting to the premise of the inquiry.

“They can’t fight back,” he said. “They have no capability.”

The rhetoric was certainly familiar. As recently as two weeks ago, the Republican boasted, “We literally have planes flying over Tehran and other parts of their country, [and] they can’t do a thing about it.” Weeks earlier, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth similarly bragged about “complete control of Iranian skies” and “uncontested airspace.”

During his national address from the White House last week, Trump went so far as to say of Iran, “They have no anti-aircraft equipment. … We are unstoppable as a military force.”

The comments came before Iran shot down an F-15E fighter jet — the first time in 23 years that a U.S. fighter jet was downed by enemy fire — in addition to striking two Blackhawk helicopters and an attack jet that were assisting in the search-and-rescue effort.

The developments weren’t the only reason to discount Team Trump’s boasts. The New York Times reported on the latest U.S. intelligence, which painted a picture at odds with the one presented by the White House:

Iranian operatives have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by American and Israeli bombs, returning them to operation hours after an attack, according to U.S. intelligence reports.

Iran has also retained a significant amount of its missiles and mobile launchers, the reports say. … American intelligence agencies have cast doubt on how close the United States is to destroying Iran’s missile capability, a key goal in the war.

The same Times report (which has not been independently verified by MS NOW) added that American intelligence estimates have concluded that Iran “retains the ability to use its remaining arsenal of ballistic missiles and missile launchers to attack Israel and other countries in the region.”

So why is the American president insisting that Iran’s military “can’t fight back” and has “no capability”? It’s certainly possible that he’s simply trying to deceive the public, hoping to change attitudes about the conflict. It’s also possible that Trump simply doesn’t accept the accuracy of U.S. intelligence, preferring his assumptions to the evidence. (It certainly wouldn’t be the first time.)

But it’s also worth asking whether the Republican is even aware of those U.S. intelligence assessments, given the information bubble he appears to live in and officials’ reluctance to tell him what he doesn’t want to hear.

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