Key Republican super PAC eyes 8 Senate races that will dictate control of the chamber

Control of Congress is on the line in the 2026 midterm elections, and when it comes to the House, Democrats have reason to be optimistic. Between the Republicans’ tiny majority and the historical pattern of the incumbent president’s party losing roughly two dozen seats in a midterm cycle, House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana probably shouldn’t count on holding on to his gavel in early 2027.

For Democrats, the fight for the Senate is more difficult.

As things stand, the Republican majority in the upper chamber is 53 seats, which creates a daunting, but not insurmountable, challenge for the opposition party. There will be 35 Senate contests this year (technically 33 races and two special elections), which offers Democrats a narrow path to a possible majority in the next Congress.

Of course, not all of those 35 races will be treated by the parties the same way, and in most of the contests, one candidate is seen as such a heavy favorite that neither side of the political divide will make much of an effort to invest limited resources. With this in mind, the main super PAC affiliated with the Senate Republican leadership has identified the eight races it cares about most. The New York Times reported:

The leading super PAC for Senate Republicans is unveiling a nearly $350 million plan to preserve control of the Senate, aiming tens of millions of dollars at red-leaning states including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio as the midterm elections grow more competitive.

Top officials at the group, the Senate Leadership Fund, described its spending priorities to The New York Times, revealing what Republicans see as an eight-state battleground in 2026.

For now, let’s not dwell on the fact that $350 million is an enormous amount of money, and Democrats will have to find a way to keep up with comparable resources. Instead, let’s consider the Senate Leadership Fund’s list:

$79 million in support of incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio
$71 million in North Carolina’s open Senate race
$45 million in Michigan’s open Senate race
$44 million in opposition to incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia
$41 million in support of incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine
$29 million in Iowa’s open Senate race
$17 million in New Hampshire’s open Senate race
$15 million in support of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska

After the list was released, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC affiliated with the Senate Democratic leadership, said in a statement, “The Senate Leadership Fund announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous. Their battleground map has expanded substantially into deep-red states, and we’re seeing the telltale signs of weakness with bad candidates, uninspiring messaging, and an approval rating in the pits.”

It was a reasonable point. States such as Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, for example, are generally seen as GOP strongholds, which Donald Trump won by double digits as recently as 2024. If Republicans were feeling better about their chances, the Senate Leadership Fund probably wouldn’t be making plans to spend a total of $123 million across those three states.

That doesn’t mean Democrats are necessarily well positioned to take the majority, however. The party will need a net gain of four Senate seats, which would likely mean holding on to every seat Democrats currently control, flipping North Carolina’s open seat, and winning at least two of the four contests across Ohio, Maine, Iowa or Alaska.

Watch this space.

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