President Donald Trump announced on Sunday the launch of what he called “Project Freedom,” an effort to use the U.S. military to help “guide” ships that have been left stranded in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s effective closure of the waterway.
But, typical of Trump’s policy rollouts, this operation has been so slapdash that it has been difficult to assess whether the plan’s flaws are a sign of incompetence or darker motives. Either way, Iran’s attempted attacks on U.S. forces and merchant ships Monday were an immediate sign that Trump’s new plan could unravel the ceasefire and set the war in motion again.
Trump described his ship-guiding operation for vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz as a “humanitarian gesture” so that they can “freely and ably get on with their business.” He also warned that any “interference” would “have to be dealt with forcefully.” This is no small task. According to U.S. Central Command, the operation will involve the use of destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and about 15,000 service members.
“Project Freedom” could be seen as a way for the U.S. to try to build up a greater presence around the strait.
Iran responded by saying it would not allow U.S. forces or commercial ships to pass through the strait without its authorization, and Ali Abdollahi, an Iranian military commander, called for “all commercial ships and oil tankers to refrain from any attempt to transit without coordination with the armed forces.”
Iran tried to make good on that threat on Monday — the first day of Trump’s operation. According to CENTCOM, after U.S. destroyers passed through the strait with commercial ships following behind them, Iran fired cruise missiles and launched drone attacks against them. The missiles and drones were intercepted and did not land hits. Six Iranian fastboats were also sent after the commercial ships but were destroyed by U.S. forces, according to CENTCOM. The Washington Post reported that Adm. Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, “would not say whether the exchange of strikes meant the ceasefire was over.”
One can already see why Trump’s “humanitarian” operation will likely fail. In order for an estimated 2,000 stuck ships, which represent over 80 countries in total, to feel safe leaving the Persian Gulf, their crews would need to hear from more than just one party of the conflict that it’s OK to pass through. If they don’t hear that from both parties, then they risk being caught in the crossfire.
Already, maritime trade organizations have pointed out that they have scant details to assess the safety of trying to pass through the strait. Some oil tanker captains have reported that their companies continue to believe the strait is too dangerous to pass through. Hapag-Lloyd, a large container shipping company with many ships stuck in the Persian Gulf, said its “risk assessment is unchanged.”
Oil prices initially fell after Trump’s announcement, but they surged again after Monday’s outbreak of violence, a sign of quickly declining public faith in the operation.
“Project Freedom” could be seen as the Trump administration’s desperate bid to find a winning narrative about a war that has spiraled out of its control. In this scenario, we can imagine the administration coming up with the idea of a so-called humanitarian mission to sound productive and authoritative and to give Trump a sense of movement as a negotiated end to the conflict remains out of reach. It also functions as a (short-sighted) tactic to try to bring down global oil prices by suggesting that maritime trade in the region could start back up.
At the same time, “Project Freedom” could be seen as a a way for the United States to try to build up a greater presence around the strait and to shift power dynamics in the waterway in its favor. As naval experts have observed, the U.S. doesn’t have the assets in the region to provide full-fledged conventional military escorts to the many ships in the area. Thus, U.S. forces may, in reality, be using ship-guiding as a cover for testing Iran’s limits and trying to see how much, if any, of the waterway it can claim for itself under the auspices of a “humanitarian” operation.
The issue with that strategy, of course, is that it dramatically increases the likelihood of confrontation with Iran, which sees its control of the strait as its trump card against the U.S. In other words, Trump’s new plan seems to be a recipe for undoing the fragile peace he has formed with Iran. In his mission to find a leg up on the country, Trump may be digging himself further into a hole.
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