Classified U.S. intelligence assessments of Iran’s military capacity revealed a reality at odds with the Trump administration’s public claims that Iran’s missile stockpile has been decimated, showing the regime has regained access to key missile sites and launchers after more than two months of war.
The recent intelligence reports found Iran has restored access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it controls along the Strait of Hormuz, which could be used to target American warships and oil tankers transiting the strategic waterway, a U.S. official with knowledge of the intelligence assessments told MS NOW.
The strait, a crucial energy export route through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply travels, has become a major sticking point in the war. Iran’s missile sites near the strait helped the country seize control of the waterway early in the conflict, leading to a global energy crisis as commercial vessels remain ensnared in the stalemate.
Iran’s ability to access all but three of its missile sites along the strait means it could launch missiles at warships and oil tankers, according to the U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the classified reports.
The intelligence also showed that about 70% of Iran’s mobile missile launchers remain viable throughout the country. Iran has also retained roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile, which is believed to be comprised of long-range ballistic and short-range cruise missiles.
The findings contradict President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s public portrayal of an Iranian military that has been “decimated” by American force.
Trump wrote off the contents of the intelligence reports, which were first reported by The Washington Post and The New York Times, as “Fake News.”
“When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. “They are aiding and abetting the enemy!”
The Pentagon and the White House did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment.
Trump has repeatedly told the public that Iran has no viable military assets left and that its missile stockpiles are “down to a scatter.” In several Pentagon news conferences, Hegseth has said the U.S. and Israel’s joint military campaign “decimated” Iran’s military, rendering it incapable of combat “for years to come.”
In April, the defense secretary said Iran’s missile program had been “functionally destroyed” and its stockpiles had been depleted, with no “ability to replenish.”
The reports have also raised concerns over the depletion of the U.S. military’s critical munitions stockpiles, which have diminished significantly since the conflict began.
If the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran were to collapse and the fighting were to resume, the U.S. military would have to use more of its munitions, while Iran would retaliate with larger weapon stockpiles than previously known.
That dilemma was a bipartisan concern for lawmakers who grilled Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, over the Pentagon’s reported failure to deliver reports on the status of the military munitions and the cost of the war.
Both defense officials denied that replenishing stockpiles would take years at a time, as billions of dollars worth of critical munitions have already been earmarked for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Testifying before the House Appropriations defense subcommittee on Tuesday, Hegseth said the Pentagon is “aware of all those dynamics,” but “the munitions issue has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated.” Caine added that the U.S. military has “sufficient munitions for what we’re tasked to do right now.”
While Tehran’s economy has been impacted by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and American sanctions on Iranian oil and financial assets, and some of its missile sites have been badly damaged, the intelligence reports have raised questions about how long the U.S. military would be able to sustain renewed fighting in Iran amid stalled peace negotiations.
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