Vice President JD Vance has roughly seven weeks to pass one of the defining tests of his political career. 

With President Donald Trump making him the public face of negotiations over a long-term Iran agreement, the outcome could strengthen Vance’s credentials ahead of a likely presidential campaign — or it could saddle him with the blame of a bad deal.

Republicans on Capitol Hill see plenty of political risk in the assignment, both because they doubt anyone could negotiate a strong pact with Iran — and because they suspect Trump would look for someone to hold responsible if the effort fails.

“There’s a chance he can become the fall guy, a chance he could become the hero,” Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., told MS NOW.

The Iran negotiations are “one of half a dozen albatrosses he’s going to be wearing from this administration,” Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told MS NOW.

“I think any association with President Trump and the foreign policy is a political liability,” Massie said. “Before JD Vance became vice president, when he was a senator, he was one of those — of us — who was questioning all of our engagements overseas, particularly Ukraine. So he’s had to do a 180 since he’s been in there, and it is a liability for him.”

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., agreed that reaching an agreement acceptable to both Congress and the administration would be difficult. “I don’t know if Winston Churchill could pull it off,” Tillis said.

But he didn’t think Vance was necessarily “a fall guy.”

“I think JD can actually be the hero if he can work out an agreement that satisfies Congress and is subject to a ratified vote of Congress,” Tillis said. “If it doesn’t, it’s a two-and-a-half-year-old deal. Why does anybody think the Iranians are going to honor this deal after Trump’s gone?”

Whatever the result, Tillis thought a good deal was an uphill climb.

“He’s definitely being passed a hot potato,” Tillis said.

Trump himself has acknowledged that he’s putting Vance in a tough spot, where the president will take the credit for a good deal, and Vance will take the blame for a bad one.

“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said during a press conference two weeks ago. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”

Vance has said he thinks Trump was joking — but the comments continue to hang over negotiations.

Vance has also acknowledged the drama of the current talks, saying last week there had been “a little bit of threatening” and “a little bit of whining,” though he also characterized the negotiations as productive. 

There is little reason to think the tensions will ease. 

Vance, presidential envoy (and Trump son-in-law) Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff are now trying to build on a preliminary agreement that has already drawn skepticism from lawmakers in both parties. 

An Iranian diplomat said last week that international inspectors would not gain access to nuclear sites until after a final agreement is reached — a position that conflicts with statements from United Nations officials. The Memorandum of Understanding provides for Iran to receive access to a $300 billion international reconstruction fund, while raising sanctions questions that have unsettled many Republicans. Others are worried the agreement’s provisions regarding Lebanon could constrain Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah.

The 41-year-old Vance, widely viewed as a potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate, rose to prominence as an “America First” skeptic of foreign intervention. Now he finds himself trying to sell the diplomatic outcome of a war launched under Trump.

Notably, his biggest rival as a potential 2028 presidential contender — Secretary of State Marco Rubio — has taken a far quieter role in the Iran talks, giving Rubio some political distance from the outcome.

And the chances of failure are far from remote.

Already, some Republicans think Vance is making mistakes.

The agreement to lift sanctions on Iran before securing specific concessions, including on nuclear inspections, undermined Vance’s leverage in the negotiations, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told MS NOW.

“The president’s put him in a very challenging position, and I think his race for the presidency will hinge on how he performs on Iran,” McCaul said.

But as many Republicans noted, the risk-reward dynamic cuts both ways. GOP lawmakers say it’s not impossible to negotiate a sufficient peace deal, and a successful end to the war would be the most high-profile victory of Vance’s career.

“The odds of Iran living at peace with their neighbors are low, right? So, if he does, I mean, it would be like, ‘Oh, this is Nobel Peace Prize worthy,’ right?” Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, told MS NOW.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, for whom Vance worked as a clerk while in law school in 2011, set an even lower bar for the vice president.

“My guess is the president told him we need to get the Strait of Hormuz open, we need to get gas prices down, and I think he’s accomplished that at least temporarily.”

Perhaps tellingly, some Republicans already are seeking to temper expectations for what Vance can achieve — especially in just 60 days. 

Van Drew, for instance, told MS NOW “it’s always going to be tempestuous.”

“It’s always going to be rocky with the Iranians,” he said.

Rep. Brian Mast of Florida — the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee — indicated there are things that simply may not be sorted out by the end of the two month negotiation period for a final deal.

“I think that’s a likely scenario — that you get to a lot of it, but I can’t tell you which ones you find the agreement and not on,” Mast said.

The Florida Republican also argued it’s unfair to cast this negotiation as simply Vance’s job. Instead, he described it as a “team effort” between Vance, Kushner, Witkoff, and Rubio.

“In no way do I personally ascribe a lead to him on this exactly,” Mast said.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., had a similar take.

“I don’t think anybody’s asking JD to do that single-handedly,” Kennedy told MS NOW. “We’ve got a whole team over there, and the president will have the ultimate say, and Congress will get to weigh in. I don’t know of any place ever said this is all on JD’s shoulders.”

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., emphasized obtainable goals, including opening the Strait of Hormuz — which was open before the war started in late February — and lowering gas prices, after they peaked above $4.50 per gallon in May.

“I’m sure that the vice president will work very hard, and I’m sure he’ll get a good result,” Hawley told MS NOW. “I think the most important thing is that we get the strait open, we protect our national security interests, we get gas prices down, and we do not give them money.”

Democrats, who aren’t inclined to grade Vance on a curve, say the administration could — and should — put together a better negotiating team than a group of political allies to Trump.

“Find a professional in the State Department that has previously negotiated with the Iranians or with other countries on something that has some significant consequence,” Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said. “Find a professional that knows how to do this.”

And Rep. Gregory Meeks — the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee — was quick to describe Vance as under “huge pressure.”  

“He’s going to be held accountable for it when he decides to run for president,” Meeks told MS NOW, adding that there’s “no question about it” that this Iran negotiation is a liability for Vance should he run in 2028. 

“If I was him, I’d run far from it. If I was Rubio, I’d be running from it,” Meeks said.

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