In the race to replace Rep. Byron Donalds, three candidates carry records that would once have threatened to end a campaign: a pardoned felon, a one-term congressman driven from his seat in another state and a man once imprisoned for his role in Jan. 6. In the governor’s race, Donalds himself is fending off a far-right challenger who has run a racist campaign, while Democrats are poised to nominate a former Republican congressman. And in a South Florida House seat, a Democratic congressman is being challenged from the left by a democratic socialist.

All of them are on the ballot Tuesday in a state where primary divisions are testing what it means to be either a Democrat or a Republican in a state that not so long ago was closely divided but is now reliably red.  

Donalds is favored to win the Republican primary in his race,  a major step toward becoming the first Black Republican governor in the United States since the Reconstruction Era — provided he overcomes a field of challengers that includes a far-right candidate who has run an openly racist campaign against him. He has President Donald Trump’s endorsement. He does not have Gov. Ron DeSantis’s: The term-limited governor has stayed out of the race to succeed him — a field that also includes his lieutenant governor, a former speaker of the state House and James Fishback, who has posted on social media calling Donalds “a SLAVE” who “only wants to please his corporate masters.” 

Donalds has largely declined to engage those provocations, running instead against the opposition he expects in November.

“If we do not make sure that we keep Florida red, the democrat socialists will have a field day ripping down everything that Ron DeSantis has done to lead Florida to number one in all of this country,” Donalds said at a recent campaign event. 

He has risen quickly in Republican politics. After winning a first congressional term in 2020, he was among the House Republicans who objected to certifying Biden’s victories in two key states even after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and, two years later, earned votes from colleagues in the speaker of the House race after Republicans regained control of the chamber and struggled to side with a leader. 

The race to replace Donalds in Congress however is among the oddest this cycle. Former Rep. Chris Collins, who represented a New York district before being sentenced to prison as part of an insider trading case, is running after being pardoned by Trump during the final days of the president’s first term. Other contenders in the race include former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost his old seat in a 2022 primary after a single alienating term, and John Strand, who spent time imprisoned after he took part in the Jan. 6 riot. Other candidates are also running on the Republican side, including one with Trump’s support. 

Incumbents are facing challenges of their own as well. Heading into Tuesday, a dozen members of Congress have been defeated in primaries this year around the country. Rep. Cory Mills could be next: The Florida Republican is running for another term amid allegations of misconduct, and two of his colleagues in the state’s U.S. House delegation are instead backing Ryan Elijah, a former local television anchor, to be the GOP pick in the district. 

The map itself has also scrambled recent decision making for voters. Under the district lines used in 2024, Democrats won eight districts in Florida and Republicans won 20. A redraw this spring pushed by DeSantis could cut the Democrats down to holding just four seats — a shift that has improved GOP chances of keeping a narrow hold on the U.S. House this fall and has created a crunch for Democrats and driven rifts on the left.  

One race Democrats are keen on is the redrawn seat Rep. Jared Moskowitz is trying to win and keep away from Republicans. He is being challenged from the left in Tuesday’s primary by Oliver Larkin, who is being boosted by the Democratic Socialists of America.

Even after a series of DSA primary victories in blue parts of the country in recent weeks, a democratic socialist defeating Moskowitz in a district Democrats are counting on as they hope to win back the House would be one of most unlikely, and improbable, upsets of the summer, and potentially end up helping Republicans this fall. 

“There’s a rejection of this kind of status quo politics, because we went back to President Biden, and the change that we were expecting to see was not fully delivered.” Larkin told MS NOW in a late June interview. 

To try and lead the state as governor, the left is likely to nominate someone who has spent time beating Democrats, and even being defeated by the party: former Rep. David Jolly, who had a stint in Congress as a Republican until he lost a 2016 election. 

“I fought the Tea Party and lost. I fought the Freedom Caucus and lost. I fought Trumpism and lost,” Jolly said. “…I’m a proud Florida Democrat, not a reluctant one, but I’m not running to save the Democratic Party. I’m not. I’m running to be governor of Florida. And when we prove that we’re worthy of people’s trust, that we can govern, then we grow the Democratic Party.”

Not so long ago, Florida was a competitive political state. But after a narrow victory in 2018 to win his first term as governor, DeSantis easily won a second term in 2022. 

While Florida was still contested by eventual President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party in 2020, where their loss was in the low single digits, in 2024 Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state by 13 points. And races for Senate after 2018 in the state have been easy wins for the GOP, solidifying its shift from a competitive target to one where Democrats are struggling. 

Yet midterms tend to punish the president’s party. Democrats are relying on that to help in a state where little else has gone their way lately.

Laura Haefeli contributed reporting to this article.

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