If you’re reading this, you’re already paying attention to the midterm elections. It can be easy to forget that most people haven’t started.
The rule of thumb for campaign strategists has long been that most voters don’t start thinking about the election until after Labor Day, which falls unusually late this year.
In a Pew survey last month, just 39% of Democratic-leaning voters and 22% of Republican-leaning voters said they had thought a lot about the midterms. One in 5 registered voters said they were unsure who they would support for Congress or preferred someone other than the two main party candidates.
For those voters, all of the big political news stories so far — the rise and fall of Graham Platner’s campaign, the surprising primary losses of Sens. John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham — have been just distant noise, like scouting reports for a professional sport you don’t follow.
Over the next 10 weeks, those voters will start tuning in. They’ll pay attention to political news a little more closely, maybe talk with friends about the election. They’ll see the campaign signs, but they probably won’t put one up in their yard. They’ll get the fundraising emails, but they likely won’t make a donation. They may even get called by a pollster, but they may not have a settled answer.
And then, at long last, they’ll decide. And while we can’t say for sure yet what they’ll choose, it doesn’t look good for Republicans.
There are a lot of factors weighing against the GOP right now — the price of gas, the war with Iran, rising healthcare premiums, widespread concern about corruption in the Trump administration. But the biggest risk for Republicans may be the same human tendency toward inaction in the face of a difficult problem that has allowed those problems to accumulate in the first place.
Many of these late-deciding voters aren’t choosing between two candidates; they’re deciding whether to vote at all.
They may be three-time Donald Trump voters who tell pollsters they approve of the job he’s doing — if they don’t “strongly approve” — but right now they’re feeling stressed in their daily lives. Some cannot imagine voting for a Democrat. But they also don’t think a Democratic gain of a few seats would be a disaster. Trump would still be president.
That kind of quiet acquiescence is also how congressional Republicans have treated Trump’s second term. When he imposed tariffs on imports from nearly every country in the world, they could have pushed back. When he launched the war with Iran, they could have invoked their war powers or restricted military spending. When his immigration-enforcement tactics went too far, they could have reined them in.
In each case, they did not act. Or, more precisely, they chose inaction. That is a decision, too.
The next 10 weeks will be a ride. Trump will hold a first-ever midterm convention to put himself at the center of the election. His allies will try to make the WNBA, the Smithsonian Institution or transgender children the campaign’s defining issue. The president will keep floating wild ideas, from renaming Lake Ontario to claiming the Strait of Hormuz as American territory. And some Republican candidates will keep testing attack lines like calling their opponents “low T” or implying they are transgender.
Those controversies will shape the daily conversation. But they are unlikely to change the conditions voters are facing: the high cost of living, an unpopular war with no end in sight and an administration that often appears more focused on MMA fights and race cars.
Republicans have a few advantages: a mid-decade redistricting effort that likely netted them a few House seats and a Senate map that puts Democrats on the back foot. The White House is pushing last-minute changes to mail-in voting that seem designed to give them a boost which the Supreme Court hasn’t exactly ruled out.
The late deciders might also break in their favor. Trump’s voters may rediscover their partisan loyalties once a specific Democrat is on the ballot. A Republican who is grumbling about gas prices in August may still come home in November. Or a black swan event could upend everyone’s thinking.
That is why the next 10 weeks are so consequential. For Republicans it is not enough that their voters support them. They need to give them a reason to show up.
But that’s not going to happen on its own. The fundamentals of the election are unlikely to change. Even a late improvement in inflation or a last-minute bill signing may not erase the impression voters have formed since Trump returned to office.
Then there’s that pool of undecided voters who really do switch between parties every two to four years. These voters may not have made up their mind yet, but the conditions that will shape their vote are already set.
Like a long-suffering spouse, they may not have said they want a divorce yet. But when they finally walk out the door, it will not be unexpected. It will feel more like the last step in a decision they had been avoiding.
This is a preview of MS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now.
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