Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has said he may want to leave the Democratic Party if it becomes too critical of Israel. But a recent poll suggests he may have to leave the party if he wants to stay in the Senate.
A new poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University found that Fetterman’s popularity with Democrats has taken a nose dive in the last couple of years. In May 2024, his favorability among Democrats was 74%; by August 2026, it was 22%. Simultaneously, Fetterman’s star has risen with Republicans, shifting from 25% favorability in 2024 to 73% in August. By contrast, his standing among independents has been fairly steady, with his favorability increasing from 45% to 49%.
Fetterman’s favorability among Republicans is so high that he even outstrips the 66% favorability of the Republican senator from Pennsylvania, David McCormick. That’s in large part because Fetterman’s media celebrity makes him a more recognizable name than McCormick. Nonetheless, it underscores how prominently Fetterman features in the consciousness of Republicans in the state.
Fetterman’s public persona is not that of a team player — he’s perhaps now best-known as a regular voice on Fox News.
Fetterman should not be shocked by how his own party’s voters have soured on him.
He still caucuses with the Democrats, but he’s made a name for himself by defecting from the party on several notable occasions during Trump’s second term and often trashing its progressive wing. He was the sole Democratic senator who voted to fund the Department of Homeland Security in February as Democrats sought to pressure the GOP to put restrictions on federal immigration enforcement. He was the first Democrat to greenlight one of Trump’s picks to be a federal judge with a blue slip. He has played a decisive role in helping Trump Cabinet nominees get confirmed.
Fetterman’s reaching across the aisle has not been received as virtuous “get stuff done” bipartisanship by his Democratic constituents. Rather, it’s perceived as something closer to fascist collaborationism.
And Fetterman’s public persona is not that of a team player — he’s perhaps now best-known as a regular voice on Fox News, where he often roasts members of his own party and the broader left. Instead of spending his time figuring out how to stanch the bleeding of the republic, he commiserates with right-wing talking heads about how New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is a “clown” and complains about May Day protests as “an orgy of socialism.”
Should Fetterman seek re-election in 2028, it’s safe to wager that he would face tough chances of winning in a Democratic primary, particularly after he’s gone all in on defending Israel while it has committed U.S.-backed genocide.
But trying to run on a Republican ticket wouldn’t necessarily be an easy path either. Fetterman’s appeal among Republicans is built on his image as a renegade within his party who often boosts right-wing priorities in his attacks on fellow Democrats. But that won’t necessarily translate to Republican support in a primary or general election. Fetterman ultimately votes with Democrats a vast majority of the time, which any Republican competitor would hammer him for in a contest with him. Fetterman is hawkish on immigration and foreign policy, but on many social issues and fiscal policy, he’s a standard liberal.
If Fetterman wishes to return to the Senate, his best odds may be via an independent run patching together a coalition of hawkish and anti-immigrant Democrats, independents and non-MAGA diehard Republicans. But in this era of extreme polarization, that’s a bumpy road to Washington, as well. Fetterman has no easy options. But progressives won’t be losing any sleep over it.
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