On the eve of a Trumpified midterm convention in Dallas, prominent Republican congressional members, allies and donors are now openly scrutinizing what President Donald Trump intends to do with the roughly $850 million his political operation has amassed but has yet to meaningfully spend, with Election Day now less than 60 days away. 

Trump and his political associates spent much of the past year telling Republicans to expect a substantial investment from Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations. So far, it has not materialized.

Two sources familiar with the group’s plans said MAGA Inc. reached an arrangement with Elon Musk this week covering two Senate races: Musk’s America PAC would focus on Texas, bolstering the campaign of Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, while MAGA Inc. would spend in North Carolina for Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair running for an open seat. Neither group has yet gone on the air. The rest of MAGA Inc.’s money remains uncommitted, the sources said.

While MAGA inc. has refused to preview its specific spending plans, an official with the group told MS NOW it intends to play in these races, and will do so soon. The official also said MAGA Inc. has been in close contact with the Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund — the super PACs designed to bolster Republicans in House and Senate races, respectively — about helping GOP candidates in competitive campaigns.

America PAC did not respond to MS NOW’s multiple requests for interviews for this piece. 

Speaking from the White House on Friday, Trump suggested that he has “around a billion dollars” to spend, and said he would spend up to $500 million and that he is the one who controls spending by his political operation.

“I do this, I do that. I’m going to be making contributions to various campaigns,” he said. “This is my money, that I control.”

The Trump operation’s money is believed to be split between two entities: more than $400 million in MAGA Inc., which can spend directly on races, and another $450 million in a nonprofit arm, according to Trump, that can advocate on policy but not directly tout individual campaigns. 

One GOP source working on the midterm effort said the party would be stunned if MAGA Inc. spent less than $200 million on November’s races — a sum that would still amount to a fraction of the broader effort’s coffers.

The Republican working on the midterm effort likened it to a sort of bait-and-switch on Republican campaigns that were led to expect money that has not arrived. “We’re three weeks away from mail voting in some states — it’s crazy,” said the individual, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly without facing retribution. “They’ve created such high expectations thumping their chest.”

One vulnerable House Republican told MS NOW that Trump and the political associates representing him made repeated commitments over the past 18 months that MAGA Inc. would use its resources to defend their votes back home. 

“‘Don’t worry, you’re gonna have plenty of air cover. We’re gonna make sure messaging is out there,’” the Republican member said their House colleagues were told, particularly as they were asked to take politically difficult votes. “Commitments were made over the last year and a half that people would be helped, and they’re not showing up.”

The member added, “And I think it makes people feel like they’ve given up on the idea of the majority, and they’re saving their money for something else.”

Several Republicans told MS NOW a theory has taken hold among some in the party that the operation is saving its money, in part, to help cover future legal bills ahead of expected investigative inquiries by Democrats in Congress next year. 

Asked specifically about concerns the group’s money will be used for legal expenses, the MAGA Inc. official dismissed the notion.

Trump-aligned PACs have already spent more than $100 million toward legal bills since 2023.

The president said Friday in the Oval Office that he could also use the money in 2028.

“Talking to our friends in Washington, I’m told to not expect anything from MAGA Inc., and I think the general consensus is that congressional races should not expect to see much from MAGA Inc.,” said Jason Cabel Roe, a longtime Michigan Republican strategist who is currently advising Rep. Tom Barrett’s campaign in the state’s swingy 7th District. 

Barrett was among the Republican lawmakers who attended the White House’s Rose Garden dinner Wednesday night for vulnerable incumbents — but there were no financial commitments made to the attendees present, according to individuals familiar with the House members’ dinner.

While MAGA Inc.’s cash largely sits idle, other Republican-aligned groups are redirecting money to defend once-safe House and Senate seats. The widening map includes not just the expected battlegrounds of Michigan, North Carolina and Maine, but also sign-of-the-times toss-ups such as Ohio, Alaska and Texas. Sources also point to Iowa and Nebraska as states that will require financial support for their Senate nominees.

While the Senate map is a source of concern for the GOP, several House Republicans in tight races told MS NOW they still expect financial support — though they noted that they anticipate relying on sizable investments by groups such as the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund, and potentially from MAGA Inc.

It is not about currying favor with Trump, one member told MS NOW in recent days. It is about waiting for the support they were promised.

Other House Republicans, however, are not so sure Trump’s cash will reach their coffers. 

“We’re starting to see members get nervous, like, ‘They’re not going to do anything, they’re saving the money,’” the member said.

If that support never comes, these Republicans point to their fundraising advantage over Democrats, and to closer coordination between candidates and national party committees — an arrangement buoyed by a recent Supreme Court ruling that allows money to flow more freely between the two.

The Senate spending game

The standoff is sharpest in Texas, where Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly and repeatedly pressed Trump’s organization to put its war chest to use. Republicans, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, have been increasingly vocal in their worry about the strength of Democrat James Talarico’s campaign and the comparatively anemic fundraising of Attorney General Paxton, who emerged from a bruising and expensive primary.

Trump has not yet OK’d his group’s spending on Paxton’s behalf.

“Who’s gonna blink in Texas?” said one Republican donor, granted anonymity to speak about a politically sensitive topic. The donor said they had heard that MAGA Inc. has multiple Paxton ads “in the can” but has not put them on the air.

“So you’re telling me they’re gonna run these when?” the donor said, warning that available advertising inventory shrinks the longer the group waits. The extent to which America PAC is going to invest is also unclear.

In July, Republican operatives familiar with MAGA Inc.’s planned timeline told MS NOW that the group would begin expansive spending in August. But that month, it spent just $825,000 — all of it for Senate candidate Darline Graham in a South Carolina primary, not a general-election showdown.

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From MS Now.