As the midterm elections approach, vulnerable Republicans are confronting an increasingly unavoidable question: Should they distance themselves from the president, or lean in to him?

Donald Trump remains a powerful force for turning out the voters that Republicans need in November. But his low approval ratings and growing political liabilities have also given vulnerable GOP lawmakers reason to stay away, particularly in districts where they need to win over voters who are less firmly aligned with the president.

The question is particularly urgent this week, as Trump prepares to headline the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas and Republicans weigh whether they should attend.

For Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who’s running for his third term in a suburban district outside of New York City, the answer seems obvious: Embrace Trump. 

Even though Kamala Harris carried his district in 2024, Lawler is speaking at the GOP convention. And back in May, the embattled Republican held a joint rally with Trump in Suffern, New York. In short, Lawler doesn’t seem to have any concerns about hitching his wagon to the president.

“My district obviously is what it is, but for me, it’s very simple,” Lawler told MS NOW. “I’ve always been very clear. If I disagree, I say it.”

“People in my district understand that I’m delivering for them,” Lawler continued. “They may not always agree with me. They may not like everything that I say. But the fact is, I have put our district front and center in making decisions in this country in a way that really was never the case.”

In Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District — a swing-seat suburb outside of Des Moines — Rep. Zach Nunn is doing a similar calculus.

“He’s had two rallies in our district,” Nunn said of Trump, “and I attended.”

Asked if he feels the president “helps” his re-election cause, Nunn disputed the premise of the question — “with respect, that is not the right question to be asking” — before clarifying that, “on the issues that are important to Iowans, I’m 100 percent with the president.” 

“On the issues where he doesn’t help Iowans,” Nunn continued, “I’m the first to stand up and tell the president this is not working out.”

Across the country, even as his approval ratings fall as gas prices rise, vulnerable Republicans have similarly chosen to appear alongside Trump when he has come to their battleground districts.

That list includes Lawler, Nunn, Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona’s 1st district, Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th district, Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th district and Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd district — all of whom are running in races rated “toss up” by Cook Political Report.

Some, like Lawler and Nunn, are downplaying the impact Trump will have in their districts. They contend voters will make up their minds independent of Trump. But where other lawmakers in swing districts might historically distance themselves from an unpopular president, many Republicans this year suggested they see Trump as an asset. 

Van Orden, a two-term congressman representing an R+3 district, said it was “not a question at all” of whether he’d appear with Trump in his Badger State district. He even noted that Trump seems to have more pull in the district: Trump won the area by 7.4 points in 2024 while Van Orden secured reelection by just 2.8%.

“If you want to talk politically, he won my district three times in a row,” Van Orden said of Trump. “I underperformed him three times in a row.”

Wisconsin Public Radio recently noted that Van Orden and his fellow Wisconsin Republican Bryan Steil are standing by Trump, even as the president’s popularity fades. But Van Orden, who was on Capitol grounds as a protester on Jan. 6, would have a difficult time separating his brand from the president.

While Van Orden suggested aligning himself with Trump was good politics, he said the politics was “secondary.”

“President Trump literally got shot in the head for America,” Van Orden told MS NOW. “He got shot in the head for America. He could be retired on some super yacht in the Caribbean doing whatever he wanted, but he stood up to fight for our country.”

“I’m not backing away from that guy,” Van Orden continued.

For Democrats, that decision is welcome news.

With Trump’s approval rating underwater — 39.7%, according to Real Clear Politics — Democrats have no problem watching their top opponents run with the president.

“Donald Trump completely is not in contact with the average voter when it comes to affordability — in fact, he keeps dismissing it in a pretty offensive way, I think, for most voters,” Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis., a vice-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told MS NOW.

“Everything we’ve seen, especially with independents, it’s a bad message for them,” Pocan said. “So the more they’re connected to that, it just reminds people that they’re doing nothing about what they and their family cares about — and that’s good for us.”

Pocan’s argument is essentially that Republicans have little choice but to stick with Trump, even if doing so creates political problems of its own.

“They just can’t walk away,” Pocan said, “even though all the facts around them are that he’s probably not the person you want to campaign with side-by-side.”

Other Democrats were even blunter.

“It’s the worst catch-22 for them,” a Democratic operative working on House races said of the GOP decision to campaign with Trump. “Great for us though!”

Still, whether Republicans campaign with Trump exists on a spectrum. Appearing alongside the president does not necessarily mean making him the centerpiece of a campaign. Most GOP ads focus on issues of affordability and cost of living.

Of course, not every Republican is embracing the president with open arms. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania — one of the Republicans representing a district Harris won in 2024 — has broken with Trump several times throughout his career. But Fitzpatrick said the answer was to make the race about your district, rather than tearing your hair out about how much distance to put between yourself and Trump.

“I think people overcomplicate this,” Fitzpatrick told MS NOW. “We all represent a constituency and we have to be loyal to them.”

“Most districts, particularly mine, they don’t want you to be the permanent lapdog nor the permanent critic of any administration,” Fitzpatrick continued. “They want you to call balls and strikes based on what’s good for the people back home.”

“We don’t need to get into pro-Trump, anti-Trump, pro-Biden, anti-Biden,” Fitzpatrick added. “I think people get too hung up on people or presidents when it’s about a district — and no district is 100% for or 100% against anybody.”

While Fitzpatrick doesn’t see Trump as a defining issue, the White House and Republican Party are making it increasingly difficult for GOP candidates to avoid him.

The party’s unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas this week will put the president front and center, and remind voters how he looms over all politics.

The White House is also thrusting Trump to the forefront with new ads — from a super PAC aligned with the president — that feature Trump prominently.

Vice President JD Vance sought to give GOP lawmakers some space from the administration if they thought that would benefit them — “we don’t need a congressman in a tight race to be there in all cases” he said of the convention — but vulnerable Republicans are making different calculations about whether their time is better spent alongside Trump or back home with voters.

Trump himself has made it clear that he intends to play a central role in the midterm campaign, arguing that Republicans should run on his record.

But if national figures are going to swing elections, Lawler thinks that affects more than just members of his party.

“Everybody focuses directly on Trump,” Lawler said. But, “in a blue state like New York where Democrats control everything,” Lawler said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Chuck Schumer would also affect votes.

Of course, not everyone thinks the decision of whether to distance yourself from Trump or to embrace him is all that consequential.

As one vulnerable Republican put it, Trump is inescapable either way.

“He’s the fucking president,” the lawmaker said. “Get over it.”

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From MS Now.