President Donald Trump’s promises rarely come with a delivery date.

A new healthcare plan is always “coming soon.” A deal is perpetually “close.” In June he even said the United States would take control of Iran’s Kharg Island “at some point in the not too distant future.”

That pattern made his latest pledge notable. Facing voter anger over gas prices seven months into his war with Iran, Trump attached his forecast to a date.

“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said, adding that the decline could come a little later after Election Day.

The prediction marked a shift from his earlier dismissal of rising oil and gas costs as “a little glitch.” Unlike those assurances, this one creates a clear benchmark: Prices will either fall after the election or they won’t.

Trump has made promises with firm deadlines before.

Ahead of the 2016 election, his campaign released a 100-day “Contract with the American Voter.” It promised a border wall paid for by Mexico, repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act and a constitutional amendment establishing congressional term limits. Fact-checkers later rated those pledges broken.

Ahead of the 2020 election, Trump told CBS’s “60 Minutes” that his replacement for the Affordable Care Act was “fully developed” and would be unveiled within weeks. No plan was released.

And before the 2024 election, Trump said dozens of times that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. He also vowed that, on his first day, his administration would “end inflation and make America affordable again.” Those deadlines came and went.

The latest prediction arrives as Americans are confronting higher fuel costs directly. Brent crude closed above $100 a barrel last week, the first time it had crossed that threshold since July, as the conflict slowed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel fuel — which drives up shipping and manufacturing costs — broke $6 a gallon for the first time on record, while regular gasoline climbed to $4.29 a gallon, more than a dollar higher than a year earlier.

What distinguishes this prediction from Trump’s earlier promises is its precision. Rather than offering a general pledge to lower costs, he named a hinge point: the close of polls on Nov. 3. Voters will be able to judge the forecast almost immediately.

It is one of several specific commitments now on the table. At the Republican midterm convention last week, Trump pledged a $5,000 “Trump dividend” payment to Americans if Republicans retain control of Congress.

Many of these commitments share a common vulnerability: They depend on factors outside the president’s direct control, including congressional action, decisions in Moscow and Tehran and global oil markets.

A drop in oil prices after Nov. 3 would likely depend in part on progress toward ending the Iran war, freer shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid market response. Trump can influence those conditions, but he cannot order them into being.

Nov. 4 will arrive regardless, and voters will be able to judge the prediction for themselves at the pump.

This is a preview of MS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now.

The post Trump just made the kind of promise he almost never makes appeared first on MS NOW.

Author: Source Author

From MS Now.