As the summer progressed and Donald Trump’s approval rating deteriorated, Republicans who were going to be on the ballot this year confronted a difficult electoral dilemma. If they stuck with the president, these GOP officials and candidates risked getting caught up in a public backlash. But if they started distancing themselves from him, they risked drawing the White House’s ire and infuriating the party’s MAGA base.

Would Republicans try to save themselves with the prevailing political winds in their faces, or would they remain loyal to their party’s president, despite his failures and unpopularity, and take their chances with voters?

A growing number of GOP incumbents are choosing the former over the latter.

Some, for example, have begun scrubbing their websites, removing references to Trump. Others were only too pleased to skip Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas last week. Others still are letting their constituents know they disagree with some of the president’s most absurd ideas.

But one Miami-area congresswoman has taken matters to an even more dramatic level.

Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s new 30-second ad, packaged as a direct-to-camera message to Trump, features the three-term congresswoman saying, “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. … The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”

The GOP congresswoman’s message is badly flawed, less because of the message and more because of the messenger. Salazar, for example, was fully on board with Trump’s candidacy in 2024, when he ran on a platform of mass deportations and fascistic rhetoric toward immigrants. She has also been content to vote consistently with the White House’s agenda over the past 21 months, toeing the party line. (A handful of GOP members have been a thorn in Trump’s side during his second term, but Salazar has never been one of them.)

But stepping back, the fact that this new ad exists at all, in a Republican-leaning district in an increasingly red state, is a timely reminder of the calculations that some very nervous GOP incumbents suddenly feel the need to make. It also suggests that internal party polling shows devastating numbers for Republicans among Latino voters.

Looking ahead, we’ll learn soon enough whether voters are willing to overlook the actual voting records of members such as Salazar, and whether other Republican incumbents start running similar ads.

But it will also be worth keeping an eye on the Oval Office. Will Trump start lashing out at his ostensible allies who suddenly want to keep him at arm’s length? Will he start pulling endorsements ahead of the midterm elections? Watch this space.

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