President Donald Trump’s approval rating dropped to a record low of 32% this week, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. But that’s not where the bad news stops for the president and his party’s midterm prospects. Just 30% of Republican voters “strongly” approve of the job he’s doing. And another key part of Trump’s base appears to be cooling on him, as well.
Only about 4 in 10 rural voters approve of Trump’s performance on the economy, according to a new poll conducted by The Associated Press in partnership with KFF. The AP and KFF Health News’ write-up of the survey, which surveyed over 2,000 rural American voters over two weeks beginning in mid-August, explained that the poll found that “the costs of groceries, gas and healthcare rank as top pain points for the rural voters,” and that a larger share of rural voters report being more worried about being able to afford groceries or gas than voters overall.
“About half of rural American voters believe the economy is worse off now than when President Donald Trump returned to office,” the report noted. Trump’s overall approval rating came in at 48% with rural voters.
These numbers spell trouble for the GOP as the November elections approach. Nearly 7 in 10 voters from rural communities voted for Trump in the 2024 and 2020 elections. But they’re showing signs of serious disenchantment with the president over the biggest issues of the day — the economy and the cost-of-living crisis. That doesn’t mean they’ll defect to the Democratic Party en masse. But it does significantly increase the likelihood that they will decline to vote at all.
Trump’s position on artificial intelligence might be a sleeper issue that deepens the rift between himself and rural America.
That Trump is losing the trust of a sizable swath of rural America is not exactly surprising, given the fact that his policies have dogged major features of its economy. In August, the president incensed cattle ranchers by announcing that he was importing hundreds of thousands of tons of ground beef to sell at below-market prices. His trade war with China has caused billions in losses for the U.S. agricultural industry. His tragicomic war with Iran has caused diesel prices to hit eye-watering record highs. And surging fertilizer prices have hit the wallets of already cash-strapped farmers.
Trump’s position on artificial intelligence might be a sleeper issue that deepens the rift between himself and rural America. This might seem counterintuitive, given that a lot of the jobs in rural areas are relatively AI-proof compared to white collar work. But these areas are also firsthand observers of one of the most controversial new policy issues of the day — data center construction. The overwhelming majority of new data centers are being constructed in rural areas. And a Politico poll in mid-July found that 51% of rural American adults said they opposed data centers, compared to 32% of urban residents.
This rural aversion to data centers is part of why some red state politicians like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have backpedaled on their previous support for data center construction. But Trump has proved remarkably tin-eared on AI, slamming mayors and governors who have objected to data center construction as bound to be “left behind,” and opposing regulations on them despite growing negative sentiment about the new technology.
Rural voters are about one-fifth of the electorate, essential to the Republican base, and small swings within the demographic can be decisive in tight elections. This year, it’ll be especially important in competitive races in states with significant rural populations, such as Maine, Michigan and Ohio. The more Trump appears to take his base for granted, the worse the outcome might be for his party come November.
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