Just like the ever-elusive yet somehow continual sightings of Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster, it seems that every so often there are fanciful whispers of Republican lawmakers en masse breaking away from President Donald Trump.
When it comes to Trump’s relationship with Republicans, though, the actual explanation is far less sensational than many headlines would have us believe. All you really have to do is look at the poll numbers to understand why certain candidates take certain positions — or, in the case of some Republicans, inch away from Trump.
In the past, and out of fear, most Republicans nibbled around the edges when trying to show their independence from Trump.
With just a couple of weeks to go until early voting starts in many states, a few vulnerable Republicans are taking calculated risks in breaking with Trump on issues they sense their constituents will respond to. In other words, it is better to win and say sorry than to be a loyal foot soldier and lose.
In the past, and out of fear, most Republicans nibbled around the edges when trying to show their independence from Trump, but last week Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., took a big public swipe at Trump, running a television ad in which she addressed the president straight to camera:
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” she said. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
In Michigan, Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, distanced himself from Trump on the war with Iran in a new ad where he says, “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”
It is very likely that these two candidates are relying on Trump’s transactional nature and the possibility that he might even respect them for stepping out of line — as long as they win. For Salazar, this was a good bet. While Trump disagreed with her, when asked if he still supported her after he saw the ad, Trump said, “I do and I have.”
Because Michigan is a possible pickup seat for Republicans, it is also likely that Trump will stay quiet on Rogers. But there should be little doubt that should these candidates win, not only would Trump take credit for it, he would also demand full obedience and loyalty, lest they feel the full wrath of Trump.
Some candidates are trying to move away from Trump on the sly — a decidedly riskier move, much more likely to arouse the ire of Trump than earn his respect. Rep. Bryon Donalds, the Republican nominee for governor in Florida, is in a dead heat with his Democratic challenger, according to recent public polling. Donalds scrubbed his website of almost all mentions of Trump, including a now-deleted section titled “Enact the Trump Agenda.” Unlike Salazar or Rogers, Donalds’ is a very dicey move.
For one, taking down a Trump endorsement goes directly to the president’s well-documented ego. Second, Trump doesn’t respect cowards. If you’re going to disagree with him, do it straight on like Salazar and Rogers, not by trying to slip under the radar hoping that Trump is too distracted by other news, and that no one notices.
Trump doesn’t respect cowards. If you’re going to disagree with him, do it straight on.
There is one Republican who has been able to thread the needle quite well. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, having won re-election in 2024 in a district that went for Vice President Kamala Harris 49.9% to 49.3%, is in one of the most competitive races in the country. Lawler has used his disagreements with the president strategically, while not completely running away from him.
In essence, Lawler has mastered the Trump weave. While he hosted a rally with Trump in May, he also ran a political ad that included him saying he took on the policial right, with a clip of Trump calling him a “pain in the ass” over fighting for the SALT, or state and local tax, deduction. Then, a couple of weeks after speaking at the Republican midterm convention, aka “Trumpapalooza,” Lawler ran an attack ad against his opponent, Cait Conley, on her support for data centers.
So yes, some Republicans are making calculated decisions to edge away from Trump. But the majority of them are sticking with the president. That’s because they know they need his voters to win, and they are afraid of moving against him because they will be up for re-election 18 months from now and are understandably afraid of retribution in a primary.
The Republican Party isn’t leaving Trump. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some rare exceptions of course — just this past week Sen. John Curtis of Utah went where no Republican has gone before, targeting a member of the Trump family by calling for an investigation of both Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden. Then again, Curtis isn’t up for re-election until 2030.
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