The 2026 midterm campaign is 35 days away from ending, which means the 2028 presidential campaign is 36 days away from beginning.
Currently, the debate among Republicans is not whether the November elections will go badly, but how badly it will go. “We’re gonna get crushed,” one House Republican told MS NOW. “The only question is by how much.”
Senate Republicans’ top super political action committee has already pulled out of North Carolina and moved resources to Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.
Yet the Republican with the most on the line come Election Day may not even be on the ballot: Vice President JD Vance.
Even if Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s, that dwindling group will make up the Republican primary electorate in 2028 — and its members seem to have already chosen the vice president.
“Politically, there’s just a recognition that it’s always going to be hard to win a midterm when you have the White House, the Senate and the House,” Vance told NBC News last week.
But his party’s problems are greater than historical trends. When the ship goes down, it’s the anchor that usually goes first, as Trump’s average approval ratings have dropped to the mid-30s. Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot keeps growing. The Iran war is stalled. Prices remain persistently high. Many voters who joined Trump’s winning 2024 coalition have fled, while fissures widen among those who stayed. There is little prospect that these trends reverse before Election Day, but there is concern they could grow worse.
Trump’s polls are reminiscent of George W. Bush’s second term, and the Democratic wave of the late Bush years was not confined to the 2006 midterms. A second wave crested in 2008: Barack Obama won the presidency and Democrats gained even more seats in the House and Senate. Most believe that in 2008, whoever won the Democratic nomination would have beat any Republican after eight years of Bush. Obama’s primary race with Hillary Clinton was far closer than his general election with McCain, who was not even a member of the Bush administration. Had Clinton prevailed in the 2008 primary, there is little doubt she would have been the first woman president 20 years ago.
The first 2028 Republican primary is more than a year away, and old GOP hands like Karl Rove have voiced concern about the party handing Vance the nomination with little opposition. But the cheers of “48” at Trump’s midterm convention spoke volumes. Even if Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s, that dwindling group will make up the Republican primary electorate in 2028 — and its members seem to have already chosen the vice president. Most of the politicians floated as 2028 candidates, including Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, register minimal support in polling. The exception, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has long signaled he will not challenge Vance in 2028.
But a primary walk for Vance may quickly turn to a general election crawl. Vance’s presidential campaign may answer the question of what the fate of the Republican Party would have been if then-Vice President Dick Cheney had been the nominee in 2008 — equally unpopular as their president but possibly more unlikable.
Two more years like the past two will doom Republicans’ chances of retaining the White House. We have already seen that when things get bad, the president gets worse.
None of this is a surprise to many observers. Even Vance patron Peter Thiel says, “I worry that it will be very hard for [Vance or Rubio] to win.”
But what is surprising is what a person “close to” Rubio said to NBC News: The secretary of state “has acknowledged behind closed doors that the landscape may be tough for Republicans in 2028 and suggested that a presidential run in 2032 or 2036 may be more promising,” though another source told NBC that Rubio is keeping all his options open.
“Rubio is obviously the Trump favorite for Vance’s #2,” Axios reported last week, “but he doesn’t seem eager for that role.” Instead, Axios said that Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt “has grown close to Vice President Vance and is seen as a top prospect to become a potential 2028 running mate.” That trail balloon deflated the same day, after Schmitt’s questioning of former counsel Jack Smith blew up in the senator’s face.
President Donald Trump’s numbers, like his second term, are seemingly unrecoverable. Two more years like the past two will doom Republicans’ chances of retaining the White House. We have already seen that when things get bad, the president gets worse. Already we have seen when things get bad, the president gets worse. As the party loses touch with the public, the president is losing touch with reality.
As the 2028 MAGA heir apparent, Vance will have to continue to parrot or attempt to excuse any erratic behavior or irrelevant idea Trump offers. There is a very real possibility he will be running in an even more toxic political environment for Republicans — all while he runs in and from Trump’s shadow.
While 2026 is still unclear, it appears many Republicans are all but certain on Vance in 2028. But with Trump still as president, Vance’s fate in that race may already be certain as well.
The post The Republican with the most on the line this Election Day isn’t on the ballot appeared first on MS NOW.
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