After spending several weeks pitching and rejecting ideas to lower gas prices, Republican lawmakers have come to grips with a grim reality: Fuel prices are very likely to be at a historic high on Election Day.
A diesel export ban would make things worse, they say. Other short-term measures, such as a gas tax suspension and expanding the use of ethanol, had plenty of critics and would have done little to bring down prices.
While President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday night to waive restrictions on red-dyed diesel — in an effort to lower diesel prices across the board — Trump is not about to end his war with Iran before Nov. 3. And until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, presidential and congressional proposals to lower gas and diesel prices would have only a marginal effect.
So, after weeks of calls to do something — anything — about fuel prices, GOP lawmakers chose to leave Washington and hit the campaign trail.
“There’s no silver bullet,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told MS NOW. “You could end the war in Iran tomorrow, and it still is not going to get us back to where we were in February.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., briefly entertained the idea of a diesel export ban, before ultimately concluding it would cause a longer-term spike in prices. A provision to allow year-round use of E15 is waiting on progress on a broader farm bill, which lawmakers hope to pass later in the year. A gas tax suspension would have cut revenue that helps maintain highways.
Ultimately, Thune could not find any good options.
When asked on Sept. 24 if lawmakers should take some sort of action on gas prices before leaving town, Thune told MS NOW to “tell me what that is.”
“I think there have been some ideas out there, most of which I don’t think are going to do much to impact gas prices,” he said. “Again, the best way to get gas prices in a better spot is to get things opened up and get the free flow of global commerce, which right now, in the strait, isn’t the case.”
Republicans know the high gas prices will hurt them, Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., told MS NOW.
“I don’t think anything other than having the conflict with Iran completely resolve itself before the election could have much of an effect on the crisis,” Lummis told MS NOW. “And I don’t see the conflict in Iran resolving itself before the election, so my guess is we’ll be going into the election with gas and diesel prices pretty high. So, it’s a headwind.”
The average gallon of regular gas cost just under $4.37 on Monday, according to AAA. Diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon. That is roughly a dollar more than the previous historic high around Election Day, when it cost $5.33 in early November 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration.
With four weeks until Election Day, analysts can estimate a rough ballpark figure for gas prices when voters head to the polls, said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. There is a seasonal trend toward slightly lower prices over the next month, but there likely will not be a major change, he said.
Regular gas will probably continue to cost at least $4 per gallon on average, Kloza said.
“I think it’ll have a four-handle — lower than what we’re seeing today, but not dramatically lower,” Kloza told MS NOW.
Diesel is more difficult to estimate, but it is probably safe to bet it will cost more than $6 per gallon on Election Day, Kloza said.
Iran could make things worse over the next few weeks, as the country’s leaders keep an eye on the U.S. midterm elections.
The difference probably would not be dramatic, partly because China has reduced how much oil it is buying from the Persian Gulf, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Rapidan Energy Group, an energy and geopolitical advisory firm, has advised clients that Iran is likely to escalate attacks against shipping and energy infrastructure.
Aside from ending the war with Iran, opening the Strait of Hormuz and striking a deal between Russia and Ukraine, policymakers do not have any options to significantly reduce gas prices, De Haan said.
“Politicians don’t have a lever to override global economics,” De Haan told MS NOW.
Suspending fuel taxes could be self-defeating because it would stimulate more demand without addressing the underlying supply shortage, he said.
A diesel export ban may briefly lower prices, but it would give oil refineries an incentive to pull back on production, sending prices higher. The long-term harm would easily outweigh the short-term benefit, he said.
“I do not like an export ban, vehemently,” De Haan said. “If there’s a hill to die on, it’s probably this one.”
Still, the temptation to take some sort of action appealed to many GOP lawmakers, even if they did not have many specific ideas. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said he was open to suspending fuel taxes, but also suggested balancing the federal budget — which currently is running a $2 trillion annual deficit.
“If you balance the budget, prices are going to come down,” Scott told MS NOW.
Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., told reporters he was open to a diesel export ban, though he was not sure it would help much.
“I don’t know that that’s going to help a lot, but it’s got to help some,” Justice said. “And if we don’t watch out, I mean, you’ll have farmers trying to pay $6.50 for diesel fuels.”
Of course, Congress has the option to oppose the Iran war, though Republicans have mostly stayed loyal to Trump on that matter.
Congress adopted a war powers resolution in June directing the administration to cease hostilities, a measure Trump has ignored. Senators voted again in September, but fell short in a 49-50 vote.
Trump has sought to shift blame away from the Iran war and toward disruptions in Russia, where Ukraine has attacked oil refineries. On Monday, he wrote on Truth Social that “Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now” through the Strait of Hormuz.
It is true that Middle East Gulf crude exports, excluding Iran-produced oil, have rebounded to prewar levels, according to commodities intelligence firm Kpler. But to some degree, the damage is already done. The shipping and insurance costs to get crude oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia have been around $33 per gallon, Kloza said. Prior to the conflict, $2 would have been considered normal, he added.
Aside from seeking to end the war, congressional leaders opted to leave Washington without taking action on gas prices, and Trump has not followed through on his flirtation with a diesel export ban.
That leaves Republican lawmakers with few options, other than seeking to sell voters on the war.
Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said the GOP’s best message heading toward Election Day is that the U.S. will win the war — and that it will be worth it in the long run.
“Clearly, with our military, with the embargo, with the work we’re doing, with the economic sanctions, we’ll prevail, and the net result will not only be a safer world, but longer-term lower energy costs and stable energy costs for our people,” Hoeven told MS NOW. “We need to keep telling that story.”
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