For the second installment of MS NOW’s “The Voter Files,” we convened four groups of Detroit-area voters in Dearborn, Michigan, to hear how they plan to vote in the state’s open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

In Maine, the subject of our first installment, Sen. Susan Collins’ long tenure has kept the Senate race local. Michigan’s Senate race is fully nationalized. The voters we heard from were Black Democrats from Wayne County, swing voters from Macomb County, Muslim Americans from Dearborn and Jewish Democrats from Oakland County, and they talked about the race in the language of fear. They fear that worsening economic instability is eroding their long-term security. The Muslim and Jewish participants are far apart on El-Sayed, but both are also concerned about their physical safety, and they described that fear in strikingly similar terms.

“What has changed? A lot of divisiveness, a lot of violence, a lot of race baiting,” said one Wayne County voter. “I’ve been a poll worker since 2004, and what I’ve been seeing at the polls now is a lot of people coming in angrier.”

Writing off Rogers, waiting on El-Sayed

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed dominated the deliberations, with each group expressing a distinct, unfulfilled desire for what they need to see and hear from the Democratic candidate before they vote for him. Though Rogers came within about a third of a percentage point of winning Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2024, the voters we spoke with — in theory, he only really ever stood a chance with the Macomb swing voters — overwhelmingly dismissed him. “Carpetbagger” and “Florida” were the words that most frequently came up, references to the former mid-Michigan congressman’s years living in Florida, where he bought a house and registered to vote in 2022 before returning to Michigan to run for Senate in 2024 and again in 2026.

But Rogers’ weakness with these voters does not mean an automatic El-Sayed conversion, even among Democratic Party stalwarts like the voters in our Wayne and Oakland groups. The conversations gravitated to what each community wanted from him that it has not yet gotten.

Black Democratic voters in Wayne County want him to visit their communities and churches. (Michigan Democrats announced yesterday that President Barack Obama will campaign with El-Sayed and other Democrats in later October.) The Macomb County swing voters are skeptical of the cost of his healthcare policy and want details on what it would cost and how he would pay for it. The Muslim Americans in Dearborn — while El-Sayed’s most enthusiastic supporters — are skeptical that he can deliver his ambitious agenda. And the ask from Jewish Democrats in Oakland County is perhaps the most insurmountable (“I often struggle with the question,” the candidate told Jewish supporters). They want El-Sayed to state unequivocally that Israel has a right to exist — something they see as a test of whether he is an ally of their community.

For most of the voters we heard from, the cost of living has narrowed and reordered their everyday lives. Black voters in Wayne County talked about their struggle to stay out of debt while meeting basic needs, including healthcare, food and gas for their commutes. Swing voters in Macomb County talked about giving up extras and waiting in the car between picking up their kids at school — rather than driving them home individually — and skipping a child’s sports game to save on gas. Dearborn Muslim voters brought up long-term sacrifices, such as deciding not to have another child, delaying marriage and retirement, and watching homeownership slip out of reach.

The same fear in two communities

The fears in Michigan go beyond money. Muslim voters in Dearborn and Jewish voters in Oakland County told us remarkably similar stories. Both groups characterized the hostility toward their communities as the worst of their lifetimes, and described pressure to hide who they are.

“I have to be careful not to speak in Arabic,” one Dearborn woman said.

“I started a new job in June, and nobody knows I’m Jewish,” said an Oakland County voter.

Participants in both groups talked about relatives and friends who have wrestled with whether to wear a hijab or a Star of David.

Two years ago, “I could very openly tell someone I was Jewish, and now I don’t always feel safe doing that,” said another Oakland County voter.

The Dearborn voters drew a sharp contrast with the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. One recalled President George W. Bush calling for unity and moving to “cut that off” when anti-Muslim sentiment surged. Under President Donald Trump, another said, “now it’s endorsed.”

Each community also pointed to specific threats. 

In Dearborn, the large antiwar protests of the Biden years have given way to far-right demonstrations. Jake Lang, a Jan. 6 rioter from Florida whom Trump pardoned, threatened to burn a Quran in May and desecrated another at a City Council meeting in August.

In Oakland County, Jewish voters spoke of rising antisemitism, citing the March attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield — “in our neighborhood,” as one put it. Security was heightened during the recent High Holidays. “I had to stand in line at the door to our synagogue so somebody could use a wand before I could go in and pray,” one voter said.

These voters quickly pinpoint the culprit. 

“I think the campaigns now are more racially motivated,” said one Dearborn voter. “It’s about who hates this guy? Who hates that guy? Who hates this group? Who hates that group?”

And some voters have seen through the national electoral environment primed to confirm their worst fears. One Jewish voter who refuses to vote for El-Sayed rejects Rogers based on his advertising, which she describes as racially charged: “If he can pull out so much hate for that, I’m just next. That’s the way I feel,” she told MS NOW. “So okay, you’ll get rid of him, and then I’m next.” She told MS NOW she will likely leave the race blank.

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From MS Now.