With less than a month until Election Day, Steve Rattner broke down the “striking similarities” between this year’s midterm elections and the 2006 elections.

Back then, voters faced a similar mix of war, rising costs and a deeply unpopular president — a combination that proved disastrous for the incumbent president and his party. But as the “Morning Joe” economic analyst’s numbers showed, President Donald Trump may be entering this election in an even weaker position than former President George W. Bush was in two decades ago.

Rattner began with gas prices. The former Treasury official said Bush had a “tough run” heading into the 2006 midterms.

“He had a war; he had Hurricane Katrina, which also added to gas prices; and so, for most of his second term up to this point, gas prices were higher than they have been for Trump,” he said.

But by Election Day, gas prices under Bush had fallen sharply. Adjusted for inflation, Americans paid an average of $3.69 per gallon in 2006, compared with $4.35 today, a gap Rattner said means the Trump administration is “facing a worse gas price situation than they were in 2006.”

The wage picture is similarly bleak, according to Rattner. Bush initially faced weak real-wage growth, but as inflation eased, workers’ purchasing power improved. Rattner’s charts showed real wages rising at an annual rate of 2.2% by Election Day. Under Trump, by contrast, real-wage growth has essentially flatlined.

“Voters are looking at no real wage increases under Trump,” he said.

Rattner also examined several other indicators that shape voters’ economic outlook, including inflation, unemployment, job creation, economic growth and mortgage rates. While Trump’s unemployment rate and economic growth were comparable to Bush’s, he has lagged behind his predecessor on the other key measures.

“On balance, voters are looking at a much tougher economic picture under Trump than they were under Bush,” Rattner said.

The approval numbers may be the most revealing comparison. Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, which is nearly identical to Bush’s heading into the 2006 midterms. But Bush began that year with approval above 50%, before the war and Hurricane Katrina steadily dragged his numbers down. Trump, meanwhile, has not reached 50% approval since returning to the White House.

Bush’s party was punished at the ballot box in 2006, losing control of both the House and the Senate in what the then-president described as a “thumping.” And now, 20 years later, Rattner’s numbers suggest Trump may be asking Republicans to defend an even more difficult reality

“There are so many similarities between now and 2006,” he said, “most of which don’t work in Trump’s favor.”

You can watch Rattner’s full analysis in the clip at the top of the page.

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