Pennsylvania could be the whole ballgame for House Democrats on election night.

The results could also offer a big test for the political clout of the state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who is running for re-election but possibly has his eyes on a different race in 2028.

The Keystone State is home to four battleground House districts. If Democrats flip them all, it’s more likely than not they will control the House chamber next year.

Shapiro has invested time and resources in winning those seats, — including campaigning this past weekend in Bucks County and the Lehigh Valley — the heart of two of those House districts.

At the Saturday events, Shapiro barely invoked his GOP opponent in the governor’s race, which he is expected to win handily even though Pennsylvania is a traditional swing state. But he did — repeatedly — rail against President Donald Trump and the “chaos and the cruelty and the corruption” coming from his White House.

“When he’s sitting behind a desk in the Oval Office, what’s he doing? He’s not thinking about how to get your healthcare,” Shapiro told the crowds. “He’s making deals that hurt you.”

Pennsylvania, of course, voted for Trump just two years ago, helping return him to the Oval Office. But in an interview with MS NOW, Shapiro said he believes Pennsylvanians have “caught on” to the president’s “BS.”

“You’re seeing a lot of folks realize that they cast a ballot for this guy, put him in the White House, and he turned around and screwed them over,” he said.

Shapiro said he would “welcome” the president — or vice president — to visit Pennsylvania in the last few weeks before election day to campaign.

“I think if they came here, it would not work to their benefit,” he said. 

MS NOW spoke with Shapiro between a canvas launch event and a rally in Bucks County, which makes up most of Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District — one of the four seats Democrats are focused on trying add to their column. The governor, who was short-listed for the 2024 vice presidential nod, is considered a possible contender for the White House two years from now and is hoping he will have long coattails to pull Democratic House contenders along with him this November.

The 1st District is currently represented by Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who has repeatedly defied political gravity, including winning by 13 points in 2024 — on the same night the district backed Democrat Kamala Harris for president.

Fitzpatrick is facing a challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner.

The other Pennsylvania battleground districts Democrats are targeting include the 7th District, where incumbent Republican Congressman Ryan Mackenzie is facing a challenge from Democrat Bob Brooks; the 8th District, where Republican incumbent Rob Bresnahan is looking to fend off Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton; and the 10th District, where incumbent Rep. Scott Perry is in a rematch with former news anchor Janelle Stelson.

The importance of the commonwealth to both parties this cycle is hard to overstate.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., both visited in recent days. Johnson barnstormed through the battleground districts last week. Jeffries made stops over the weekend, including the Bucks County rally Saturday alongside Shapiro and Harvie.

At the rally, Jeffries laid out the stakes.

“We pretty much can win back control of the house right here in this great state,” he told the crowd.

Jeffries — who is poised to become House speaker if power changes hands in the House — told MS NOW that Shapiro has been a “great partner” as they’ve looked to make inroads in Pennsylvania’s key districts.

“He identified the candidates very early on who we thought would be strongly positioned to flip these seats,” Jeffries said. “Bob Harvie was among those right at the top of the list.”

And Harvie praised Shapiro as the “North Star” for “a lot of politicians in this commonwealth.”

The latest polling suggests Shapiro could win re-election by more than 20 points against state Treasurer Stacy Garrity — in a state Trump won by just shy of 2 points merely two years ago.

He is trying to ensure he will have coattails downballot.

A Republican operative noted that in 2022, when Shapiro first ran for governor, the downballot impact was not a groundswell in at least some of the key races — including the 1st District. While Shapiro won the district by double digits, Fitzpatrick still won by nearly 10 points.

That was, however, a different year politically — with a Democrat in the White House and the party, nationally, on the defensive. Now the roles are reversed.

In a statement, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee insisted Republicans will “once again be successful this year” in the key battleground seats.

“Across Pennsylvania, Republicans have strong incumbents running on their phenomenal records of cutting taxes for working families, improving safety and security, and delivering for the communities they were born and raised in,” NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson said.

The results in these Pennsylvania districts are likely to have ripple effects well beyond 2026 — into 2028.

Shapiro has long been the subject of presidential speculation. And this year could serve as a test of his political influence.

Casey Burgat, who heads the legislative affairs program at The George Washington University, told MS NOW that Pennsylvania this year is essentially “a live demonstration of the Shapiro 2028 theory of the case — his pitch is that Democrats can be culturally comfortable, pragmatic, and broadly acceptable enough to win voters who might not think of themselves as Democrats.”

“If that approach helps deliver several congressional seats in one of the country’s premier battleground states, he has an even more compelling case to make in 2028,” Burgat said.

For his part, Shapiro declined to engage in the 2028 speculation.

“My focus is on flipping those four districts so Hakeem Jeffries can be Speaker of the House so that Donald Trump won’t have a rubber stamp on his legislative agenda,” he told MS NOW.

Among Bucks County Democratic voters, the idea of a Shapiro 2028 bid was met with praise — and some caution.

Grant Smith of Perkasie, Pennsylvania, said he’d “like to see” Shapiro run, calling him a “great guy” and “intelligent.”

Jeanette Pasqua, a Dublin, Pennsylvania, city councilmember, said she would “like to see what he would have to offer the nation.”

But Sarah Beltz of Plumstead, Pennsylvania, said she wants to see a “really robust primary,” arguing that having an opportunity for everybody to “share their views on a variety of issues would be good.”

Harvie, for his part, told MS NOW that “as much as I would hate to lose him as governor, I understand that — you know, I’m always going to put the needs of the country first.”

The next two years in Washington will help lay the groundwork for 2028, too, by offering Democrats a chance to spell out, if they choose, their legislative vision — even if Trump uses the veto pen to block it.

Shapiro told MS NOW that he wants to see Democrats in Washington “learn how to use their power.” He wants the focus to be more than investigations and oversight work.

“Yes, make sure there is accountability for the president’s corruption,” he said, “but also remember the focus has to be on delivering for people, reducing costs, making healthcare accessible, making sure food assistance is available.”

In the short term, Shapiro told MS NOW he is preparing for the possibility of Trump trying to interfere in next month’s election.

He said he fully expects that Trump will “go back to court to try and toss out votes. We’re very prepared for that.” He added that they’re also prepared for the possibility that Trump will send in federal troops to intimidate voters.

“Our state police, our guard, and others have been part of our tabletop exercises to get ready. We’re communicating with other states as well,” the governor said. 

“Bottom line,” Shapiro said, “I’m going to make sure their vote is counted, and their right to vote is protected.”

“Even while Donald Trump is trying to take it away,” he said.

Soorin Kim contributed to this report.

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From MS Now.