With three weeks to go until Election Day, the Senate battlefield is getting bigger. MS NOW is moving Kansas to “lean Republican” and Minnesota to “lean Democratic,” pulling two seats that once looked more secure into competitive territory.

Kansas

Kansas joined our list of races to watch last month, when we categorized it as “likely Republican.” While we still give the GOP the edge in defending this seat, several factors have moved it into a more competitive category: lean Republican.

For one, polling continues to show Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck with incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. As we explained a few weeks ago, the national environment looks bleak enough for the GOP that even a state as red as Kansas could be decided by single digits this year. Hamilton, a well-known United Methodist pastor, appears to be a strong nominee, while Marshall has been fending off questions about his past medical billing practices and, as MS NOW recently reported, his campaign finances. Even so, it is striking that polls have shown Hamilton tied or even slightly ahead of Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 points.

The polls do warrant some caution, however. Voters who backed Trump in 2024 are more likely to be undecided than those who supported Kamala Harris — a pattern visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls. If those undecided voters ultimately break toward Marshall, in line with their past votes, he has room to gain a few points.

The polls also show a fair amount of ticket-splitting, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson running ahead of Marshall. But the bigger question is how many voters will actually back a Republican for governor and Democrat for Senate in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. And while midterm polling has been fairly accurate on average in recent cycles, polls in individual states often miss by several points. It is not hard to imagine that pollsters are once again struggling to reach reliably Republican voters.

Voter registration trends offer Democrats another somewhat encouraging sign. Statewide, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, 45% to 26%. But recent months have suggested some energy on the Democratic side: Democrats outpaced Republicans in new registrations by a 2-to-1 margin in August and September, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. While the new registrants are just a drop in the bucket compared to Republicans’ overall advantage, it is a markedly different pattern than in 2022, when Republicans outpaced Democrats during the same period. Kansas also has a sizable pool of unaffiliated voters, who are likely to play a big role in determining the final margin. Polls suggest they favor Hamilton.

Finally, Republicans and their affiliated groups are acting like Kansas is truly competitive. Vice President JD Vance visited the state last month to rally support, and the Senate Leadership Fund PAC started spending big on this race in late September. It now has more than $10 million in ad time reserved, according to AdImpact. That may reflect an abundance of caution, since wave elections often bring surprise upsets that benefit the party out of power. Either way, it is remarkable that Republicans feel the need to shore up support in a seat like this one at all.

Minnesota

On paper, Minnesota should be an easy hold for Democrats in the current environment: It has not elected a Republican senator in more than 20 years, and it has not voted Republican for president in more than 50. It is also a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the Senate majority. But polling has consistently shown this open-seat race within reach for Republicans. That is the main reason we are moving it from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic.”

With Sen. Tina Smith retiring, Democrats have no incumbency advantage here. If anything, there might be a bit of a disadvantage being linked to Democratic leadership in the state. Progressive Lt Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the party’s August primary over centrist Rep. Angie Craig. But it is also possible that the state’s social services scandal, which has cost Gov. Tim Walz politically, could also pose a challenge, and Flanagan may struggle to distance herself from it. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL reporter, has been hammering Flanagan over the issue.

There has not been much polling in this race, but what little there is shows a close contest. Flanagan leads Tafoya by about four points, on average — the same modest margin by which Harris won the state in 2024. The country has clearly shifted to the left since then.

On top of nationwide economic discontent, Minnesota has seen social unrest and violence involving federal agents following the Trump administration’s deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to the state. Those developments have meant an even stronger leftward swing. Instead, polls suggest a more muted shift. The same polls show Flanagan running a few points behind Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, who looks likely to succeed Walz.

We do not know precisely how polls will err this year. Is it possible they are understating Democratic strength in Minnesota, while overstating it in Kansas? Absolutely, but we will not know until Election Day. That is why we treat polling as an informative signal, but not the final word. Both states could be competitive this year, but their recent electoral history gives the incumbent party a baseline advantage we cannot ignore.

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