For the third installment of MS NOW’s “The Voter Files,” we went to West Des Moines to hear from two groups of reluctant Trump voters — one group from the city’s suburbs and another from small towns and rural areas. Most have split their tickets in past elections.

Of the three states we’ve visited so far, Iowa offers Democrats the clearest and most hopeful picture. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins’ standing as a long-tenured institution may help her withstand Democratic momentum. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s struggles with some of his party’s traditional constituencies have kept the race tight.

But in Iowa, Democrats have taken the national distrust of Trump’s self-dealing and pointed it at Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, raising questions about how her wealth has grown since she entered Congress. ​​The resulting cynicism may give Democrat Josh Turek enough of an edge to win: enough crossover votes and enough depressed Republican turnout.

Low marks for Trump

National polls show President Donald Trump at the lowest approval of his second term, and the Iowans we met were no more generous. All of them said they were unenthusiastic about voting for him in 2024. Asked to rate his second term on a scale of one to 10, none went higher than a six, most gave him a four or a five, and the lowest assessment was a two.

“Five is almost too generous,” said Diane, an independent. “He has a lot of room for improvement.”

One participant called him “unhinged.” Another described his second term as “a personal session, like his playground.”

For these voters, the clearest evidence of broken promises is the cost of living. Consumer prices are up 3.7% over the past year.

“Our prices were going to come down. Cost of living was going to get easier,” said Janella, a Republican. “Still haven’t seen it.”

Then there’s Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran. In national polling, only roughly 34% of Americans say Trump’s decision to go to war was the right one. He promised no new wars, and when he took office in January 2025, the United States wasn’t at war. Now, voters see not only continuing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, but a new war with Iran that Trump launched.

“It seems like we’re in more wars than ever before,” said Tim, an independent.

Jack, another independent, tied the broken promise to avoid war to rising costs.

“I think we’re paying for that at the gas pump, grocery store, etc.,” he said. Gas prices have jumped 34% over the past year, and groceries prices are up around 2.5%.

They’d do it again

These voters went into Trump’s second term with their eyes open. Some dreaded a return to the drama of his first term and voted for him anyway.

“Do I really want to deal with all the drama that comes with him?” said Kristi, an independent, recalling her decision in 2024. “But then, what was my other choice?”

“He’s gotten worse,” Janella said, describing a president who has dropped any pretense of working with his own party, let alone with Democrats.

Yet for all their misgivings, when asked whether they would change their 2024 votes, all but one agreed they would vote for him again over Kamala Harris.

“There were no other options,” said Dirk, a right-leaning independent, raising his hand.

It’s this sentiment — that they would choose Trump again — that helps explain why Trump’s sagging approval hasn’t translated into decisive Democratic leads in some battleground states.

Two years later, what drives these voters as they weigh their Senate and House options is less Trump himself than a broader distrust of politics.

Kate, an independent, offered the most charitable view of Trump’s presidency.

“At least he is trying,” she said. “At least he is pushing a button somewhere.”

In theory, that’s a low bar for the opposition to clear. But these voters don’t see a compelling alternative from Democrats, or any vision that convinces them the party would do better.

No home with Democrats?

“Right now, we’re stuck with a Republican Party that will do nothing to offend Trump, and a Democratic Party that will do nothing except try to go after Trump, any way, shape, or form,” Dirk said. “So in the end, we all get screwed.”

The Iowans echoed what we heard from similar voters in Maine and Michigan: Democrats seem unmoored, fixated on Trump and short on concrete policy. Most alienating of all is their sense that Democrats look down on them for voting for Trump.

“I feel like they all think that we’re like racist,” Chandler said. “It’s like they always think that we’re all against everything. It’s just their agenda that they try to push on us.”

Some said those assumptions about their motives ignore the real circumstances and needs that shaped their votes.

“Personally, my vote was motivated by potential changes that Trump could make to the economy,” Anne said.

Democrats, Janella argued, were not paying attention to their lived reality.

“They need to stop all the fighting and bickering amongst themselves, and really genuinely take a good look at what the American people are dealing with,” Janella said. “This is our livelihood we’re talking about, and every single politician has forgotten about that.”

Will they skip the Senate race?

Disenchanted with Republicans and unconvinced by Democrats, some of the Iowans we met are weighing not who to support in the Senate race, but whether to vote in it at all.

The two groups split sharply. Of the 10 rural and small-town voters, six are leaning toward Hinson and four are considering Turek. None of the 10 suburban voters is considering Hinson; seven said they would leave the Senate race blank, and the other three are considering Turek.

Focus groups aren’t polls, and 20 voters can’t predict a statewide race. But if the 2024 electorate turns out again and that pattern holds in suburbs and small towns across Iowa, Turek could be well positioned to win. He wouldn’t need to convert Trump voters wholesale, just persuade some to cross over and many others to skip the race.

For Hinson, the danger isn’t that these voters have embraced Democrats. It’s that they’ve given up.

“You just lose all faith in everybody eventually because nothing gets done, and you lose trust and become cynical,” Jack said.

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From MS Now.