The calendar is now Ukraine’s foe — and so, Ukrainians fear, is Trump

This is the Oct. 21, 2026 edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered straight to your inbox Monday through Friday.

“Whether it’s in Ohio in the governor’s race or in our foreign policy, we’re seeing moral depravity play out in real time.”

— Mika Brzezinski, Oct. 21, 2026

Ukraine is bracing for a brutal winter. As frigid temperatures approach, Russia has only escalated its attacks as Vladimir Putin seems emboldened by the American president’s recent turn toward Moscow.

Russia’s arms factories have already made enough missiles and drones to take down Ukraine’s electrical grid, as well as the heating systems that millions of people rely on to stay warm. Left dark and cold, many homes across the country will become deadly.

But as I argue in my latest piece for The Atlantic, three upcoming events that could decide Ukraine’s fate will all take place thousands of miles from Kyiv.

The first is America’s Election Day, now less than two weeks away. Ukrainian leaders fear that if Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, Donald Trump may abandon them further in those final weeks of full Republican control of Washington.

The second is a proposed summit in mid-November in southern China, where Putin hopes to meet with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to plan for ending the war — with no seat at the table for Ukraine.

The third is December’s Group of 20 summit, to be held at, where else, the president’s Miami-area golf club. Trump wants Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet there and agree to a deal, even if it’s a bad one for Ukraine.

What’s behind Trump’s latest anger at Ukraine? As I write:

Trump has demanded an energy cease-fire — he even announced one earlier this month that had no basis in reality — yet has focused his ire entirely on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries. He blames those strikes for the rise in energy prices while ignoring the real culprit, Iran’s ability to defy the United States and close the Strait of Hormuz. He’s convinced himself, three people close to him have told me, that Ukraine’s attacks on the refineries are, in part, meant to undermine Republicans’ chances next month — and, by extension, Trump.

The president has ignored Moscow’s attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid, and Monday, hours after a drone strike on a public park killed six people, including two children, he downplayed its strikes on Ukraine’s cities, declaring that Russia had not “been doing much.” An image of one of the dead children, a 1-year-old killed as she sat in her stroller, was broadcast around the globe.

The calendar is now Ukraine’s foe — and so, Ukrainians fear, is Trump.

Read the full piece here.

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CHARTS OF THE DAY

Source: Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,679 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 16-19, 2026. Margin of error: +/- 2.4 percentage points

WHAT THEY SAID

John Heilemann on the Ramaswamy campaign’s latest ad

“In 35 years, I’ve never seen an ad that crosses more ethical and moral lines of decency than this one. Amy Acton had about a 5-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy because Ohio voters don’t like him and don’t think he’s a person of principle. An ad this desperate and disgusting is usually a sign a campaign sees the writing on the wall — that they need to do something dramatic to alter the trajectory of the race.”

Jessica Taylor on the midterms

“If Democrats take back the Senate, it would be a historic night — and it’s not out of the realm of possibility. ‘Morose’ is one of the words that comes to mind from some of my conversations with Republicans.”

David Drucker on what comes after the midterms

“Even if Democrats win control of the Senate to go along with the House, the president is still going to have a veto pen. Democrats are going to have to find those areas where they have leverage and power — and then be willing to negotiate with the president.”

STEVE RATTNER’S CHARTS: THE MONEY MACHINE

With two weeks to go, the Democrats’ momentum shows up not only in the polls but also in their candidates’ fundraising, despite a massive Republican advantage in political action committee cash. Democratic candidates are raising money at a pace that has left their Republican opponents far behind — in some Senate races, by a factor of 5 or 10.

The real Republican advantage comes from super PAC money, with one man playing a disproportionate role: Elon Musk. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Senate Republicans, raised $273 million in the third quarter, an unprecedented sum. Of that, $158 million came from Musk, in two checks written in September.

Democratic candidates themselves, on the other hand, have posted far stronger fundraising numbers than their Republican competitors. Democratic House candidates have raised $1.25 billion this cycle to $966 million for Republicans and hold $414 million in cash to the Republicans’ $320 million.