Why Dems’ late House reaches don’t usually pan out

This post was originally published on Politico.

House Democrats are pushing into redder and redder territory. History shows those last-minute moves don’t usually pan out, even in favorable cycles.

Since 2018, Democrats haven’t flipped any Republican-held seat that was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list in the September or October before Election Day, according to a POLITICO analysis. Of the 28 total candidates from 2018 to 2024 that were added in the final two months of the campaign, just three Democrats won — all in Democratic-held open seats.

That’s a much lower rate than average Red to Blue performance. Out of 203 candidates added