PEARL RIVER, N.Y. — Reps. Mike Lawler and Brian Fitzpatrick are the only two Republicans running for re-election this year in districts where Vice President Kamala Harris prevailed in 2024. And while Democrats are confident that a blue wave will finally wash away these two GOP lawmakers, both think they can once again rise above the political tide — by deploying similar but distinctly different strategies.

“When I agree with the president, I say it. When I disagree with him, I say it,” Lawler, referring to Donald Trump, told MS NOW in an interview on the sidelines of the Pearl River Day street fair. “I have a pretty clear record of pushing back on things that matter to my district and my constituents.”

Fitzpatrick has embraced a similar approach. The Pennsylvania Republican told MS NOW during an interview in Bensalem, Pennsylvania, that voters “feel the way they’re going to feel about the president.”

“My job is to represent a district, and that means opposing him when doing so is in the interest of our district,” he said. “That means supporting policies, no matter who introduces them, when doing so is in the interest of our district.”

For both Republicans, the “disagree when I disagree” approach carries some risks. They could alienate some GOP voters and draw the ire of a temperamental president. But the strategy may also be overstated: Fitzpatrick has voted with Trump roughly 77% of the time, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. And a 2025 analysis from Congressional Quarterly found that Lawler voted with Trump 94% of the time.

But thus far, the strategy appears to be working. Recent polling shows Lawler neck and neck with Democrat Cait Conley and Fitzpatrick in a close race with Democrat Bob Harvie. Notably, both parties together have dumped more than $80 million into advertisements in the two races, according to AdImpact.

Harris did win a third district that’s currently represented by a Republican. But that GOP lawmaker, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, isn’t running for re-election, and Democrats think they will pick up that seat.

The situation is much less clear in the cases of Lawler and Fitzpatrick.

In 2024, Lawler won re-election in his Hudson Valley district by 6.3%, sailing to his second term in Congress. That same year, Harris won the district by 0.6%.

The margins were even more pronounced for Fitzpatrick, who marched to a fifth term representing his Bucks County district in 2024 by 12.8%. Harris, meanwhile, carried his district by 0.4%.

Same goal, different playbook

While Lawler and Fitzpatrick share a goal — embrace the president when it helps and distance themselves when it hurts — their playbooks are slightly different.

For every step Lawler has moved away from Trump, he has also taken a step toward him. The New York Republican has criticized the president on a number of policies, including his decision to end Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants, parts of his memorandum of understanding with Iran and, most recently, the rollback of sanctions on Russia.

But Lawler also appeared with Trump at a rally the president held in Rockland County in May, and he spoke at the Republican convention in September — an event that many battleground Republicans skipped.

For Lawler, the calculus is simple.

“He’s the president of the United States, and whether it was Joe Biden or Donald Trump, you show up when the president comes to your district,” Lawler said, noting that he attended Biden’s event in his district in 2023.

“In order to be effective, you got to be able to deal with the president, and I’ve done that,” he said.

Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has kept Trump at a greater distance. The Pennsylvania Republican did not attend the GOP convention, has never appeared with Trump at a campaign rally and isn’t even endorsed by the president.

Fitzpatrick was also one of just two Republicans to vote against the GOP’s reconciliation package last year, and he was one of the first Republicans to vote to curb Trump’s authority in Iran.

“If he conducts himself in a manner that’s unbecoming — which he has, very, very often — I will say so,” Fitzpatrick said.

But, he added, there is a balance.

“That doesn’t mean you just make a living out of just poking people in the eye all day, every day,” he said.

The slightly different strategies for Lawler and Fitzpatrick are coming into focus one week before Election Day. Democrats need to flip just four seats to take control of the House — and both Lawler and Fitzpatrick are prime targets.

However, as Republicans begin spending in districts where Trump won by double digits, Lawler and Fitzpatrick have stubbornly made both of their races no sure thing.

Still, even as public polls show the races in dead heats, Democrats are projecting confidence.

“This is the year that Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Lawler lose their seats,” a Democratic strategist working on House races told MS NOW.

The operative, who requested anonymity to candidly discuss the elections, cited Harvie’s roots in Bucks County and Conley’s status as a decorated combat veteran.

“It’s why Republicans spent millions to meddle in the Democratic primary,” the strategist said. “They are scared to death of losing to her next week.”

The voters

For voters, the question of whether Lawler and Fitzpatrick are genuinely independent is far from settled.

Roger DeBonis, a financial adviser from Tappan, New York, told MS NOW he is a Trump supporter voting for Lawler, citing the congressman’s independent streak.

“He doesn’t just tow the line for the Republican Party,” DeBonis said. “I happen to be a very big fan of our president, but he’s not right all the time.”

Bernadette Murray, a 65-year-old accountant from Pearl River, told MS NOW she’s voting for Conley. Asked about Lawler’s moderate streak, Murray said she didn’t really think it made a difference.

“Republicans are never going to go anywhere,” she said. “I think he’s just in a party that is just failing, hurting people left and right.”

Plenty of voters — perhaps a decisive number — remain persuadable.

Jeanine Salvato, a 62-year-old retiree from Pomona, told MS NOW she voted for Harris in 2024 and was planning on supporting Conley. But after meeting Lawler at the street fair, she’s reconsidering.

“When I spoke to him, he kind of reiterated that and said he’s more in the middle,” Salvato said, adding that Lawler “pushes back when he can, and I think that’s important.”

Voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st District are similarly divided. Some see Fitzpatrick’s middle-of-the-road approach as genuine. Others say it’s an act.

Linda Crawe, an assistant deli manager from Bucks County, told MS NOW she is voting for Fitzpatrick and supports his independent streak.

“I do support Trump, but sometimes there are things that can go either way,” Crawe said.

In contrast, Michelle Tobia, an 81-year-old retired nurse from Philadelphia, said she is voting for Harvie because Fitzpatrick is “a chameleon.”

Carol Mikulsky, a 72-year-old retiree, also plans to vote for Harvie, though she’s not sure this will be the year Democrats oust Fitzpatrick.

“We’re in a purple district,” she said. “I think the turnout is good, we have a chance. But I still think it’s going to be difficult.”

The path to victory

Despite the challenges, both Republicans believe the political makeup of their districts gives them a path to victory.

For Lawler, it’s a numbers game. He points to the shrinking Democratic advantage in his district: In 2020, Joe Biden won New York’s 17th District by 10.1 percentage points, compared with Harris’ 0.6-point victory in 2024.

Lawler also noted that polling suggests voters’ opinions of Trump have remained remarkably consistent. In more than a dozen surveys of his district he has conducted over the past four years, he said, Trump’s disapproval rating has hovered around 49%.

The statistics lead Lawler to believe that voter feelings about Trump are largely baked in — and that winning requires appealing to both his supporters and his critics.

“People are frustrated across the board,” Lawler said. “But I can tell you, this district is notorious for being ticket-splitters — for being pragmatic, for being commonsense.”

For Fitzpatrick, the argument is less about data and more about demographics. While the Democratic margin of victory on the presidential level decreased from 2020 to 2024 — 4.6% to 0.4% — the Pennsylvania Republican cited the broad coalition of support he has built.

“I have a ton of Democrat supporters, independent supporters and Republican supporters,” Fitzpatrick said. “I also have detractors in both parties, because many in the parties want me to be ideologically pure on one side or the other.”

With Election Day approaching, Lawler and Fitzpatrick are confident they can win. But they are also confident in their brand of politics — a style that, they say, is the only kind they can perform.

“This is the only kind of district I could represent,” Fitzpatrick said. “I could never represent a lopsided district, and I’ve thought about that a lot. When people say it’s a tough district, it’s not tough for me. Any other district would be tough for me.”

Lawler, in true New York fashion, was even blunter: “To me, I am who I am, and I don’t care the political consequence of standing up for what I believe in.”

“And if it pissed them off,” he said, “so be it.”

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