On Sunday, two days before Election Day, President Donald Trump went to Salina, Kansas, to try to rescue the floundering campaign of a Republican ally in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since before World War II.

“I hope he doesn’t need it, but I had to make sure that he gets in,” Trump said to the crowd, speaking of Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., a first-term Republican.

The trip should have reassured nervous Democrats. It showed how far the battlefield has shifted in their favor, in ways they could only have imagined 18 months ago.

But they had other problems.

Hours earlier, Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., had thrown her support to Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive who beat her in the state’s Democratic Senate primary. Michigan Democrats were left scrambling. Stevens, a moderate, had the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in that primary.

“On a day when Republicans were forced to send Trump to campaign in Kansas, Haley Stevens handed them their biggest in-kind contribution of the cycle,” said a senior Democratic staffer for a prominent member of Congress in a Midwestern state.

The split screen captures the battle for the Senate in miniature: Republicans are spending precious time and money to defend ground that should be safe, while Democrats are endangering ground they cannot afford to lose.

Heading into Tuesday’s midterms, the fight for the Senate is playing out across a far wider map than almost anyone expected. Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. That is a tall order in a cycle when most of the seats Republicans are defending are in traditionally red states such as Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas. Yet polls show Democrats are favored in North Carolina and competitive in all four of those states. They have also forced the GOP to pour tens of millions of dollars into South Carolina and Kansas, where Republicans have not lost a Senate race in decades.

In some races, Democrats have been buoyed by forces beyond their control, chiefly Trump’s sagging approval ratings and a crop of mercurial Republican nominees…In others, they have played a genuinely savvy hand.

In some races, Democrats have been buoyed by forces beyond their control, chiefly Trump’s sagging approval ratings and a crop of mercurial Republican nominees, often despite their own infighting. In others, they have played a genuinely savvy hand, landing marquee recruits who put red-state seats in play. The result is a Senate majority within Democrats’ grasp. Not long ago, that possibility was nearly unthinkable, and the party could still let it slip.

A “perfect storm has created this moment and created a map that looks so favorable when, in fact, the fundamentals are extremely difficult for Democrats and we’re just dramatically overperforming right now,” said Democratic strategist Josh Marcus-Blank.

The math

On paper, Republicans could hardly have asked for a better map. They hold a comfortable 53-47 majority. In a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tiebreaking votes that keep the GOP in control, which is why Democrats need four seats, not three.

Democrats also have to protect what they already hold. That includes seats in Georgia and Michigan, presidential battlegrounds Trump won two years ago, and in competitive New Hampshire and Minnesota. Losing any one of them would upend delicate math.

Polling averages compiled by the website FiftyPlusOne show Democrats leading in five of their eight potential pickup opportunities, some narrowly. The other three races remain tight.

Republicans, however, have the financial edge across the Senate map. Since Labor Day, Republican groups and their allies have spent more than $1 billion on advertising, compared with less than $900 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact.

The cost-of-living bet

Democratic leaders bet early that cost-of-living worries would give them an opening. Within weeks of Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., began leaning into an economic message. They cast Democrats as fighting for the middle class and Republicans as standing with the rich.

A senior Democrat involved in the Senate effort, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said the party has since sharpened voters’ focus on the issues now driving the campaign. This person pointed to the October 2025 government shutdown, which Democrats turned into a fight about costs by focusing on expiring healthcare subsidies. At the time, much of Washington saw the shutdown as a blunder.

The senior Democrat also cited the party’s repeated efforts to spotlight what Democrats cast as Trump’s corruption, from a jet gifted by Qatar to what they describe as a Justice Department slush fund. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., was among the first to lean into that message, and he has fused it with the party’s focus on costs.

Jeffries, who is likely to become speaker if Democrats win the House, went further in a recent interview with MS NOW. He attributed his party’s new advantage in voter trust on the economy and immigration to “the fact that we’ve successfully and aggressively pushed back against MAGA extremism.”

Left unsaid were the party’s own problems: Democrats remain unpopular, with underwater favorability ratings.

Schumer’s recruits

The recruiting push by Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has paid off, at least in putting seats in play. Early in the cycle, they leaned hard on three marquee recruits to run in states that might otherwise have been out of reach. Schumer “essentially really put the hammer on all three of them and told them it was necessary,” a Democratic strategist working on Senate races said.

Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election, is likely to flip the seat held by outgoing GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Races in the state are often close, though. Cooper won his first race for governor in 2016 by just 10,277 votes.

In Ohio, Schumer made multiple trips to persuade former Sen. Sherrod Brown, his longtime Senate colleague. Brown lost his seat two years ago by less than 4 points in a state Trump carried by 11. Schumer was betting on Brown’s unique ability to win. Brown eventually got to yes.

Now Brown is running against Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat Vance vacated to become vice president, and he has framed the race around costs.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola lost her House seat in 2024 but ran ahead of her own party’s pick for president. She is now in a close race with GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in the polls, despite controversy and scrutiny toward the former congresswoman’s run.

Schumer also backed state Rep. Josh Turek, who faces a formidable opponent in Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. But the race being competitive at all shows how far the cycle has turned against Republicans.

Stumbles and missed chances

The national environment has given Democrats room for error. They have needed it. Not all of Schumer’s bets have paid off, and several of the party’s own candidates have distanced themselves from him.

Michigan is the starkest example. Stevens was Schumer’s pick in the primary. The third major candidate in that primary, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, had said from the start that she would not back Schumer to continue leading Senate Democrats. For months, Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who chairs the party’s Senate campaign arm, signaled their support for Stevens, inviting her to donor events and steering help her way. Behind the scenes, Schumer’s operation worked to keep McMorrow away from the big-dollar donors a Senate campaign depends on, two people familiar with those conversations told MS NOW. They were granted anonymity to describe internal conversations.

Gillibrand went further, suggesting to several donors that McMorrow had been a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, the people said. McMorrow has never been a DSA member. None of it worked. El-Sayed won the primary and Stevens has now endorsed a Republican, putting a must-hold seat in jeopardy.

Maine, which reliably votes Democratic for president, had all the makings of the party’s best pickup opportunity, even against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, a formidable campaigner and a resilient statewide politician. There, too, the party’s establishment bet backfired.

Months before the primary, the DSCC lined up behind Gov. Janet Mills, 78, even though Graham Platner, a progressive oyster farmer and Marine veteran, had entered the race first. In a cycle when voters have shown a clear appetite for outsiders, Platner drove Mills from the race well before the primary.

After the primary, Platner was accused of sexual assault. He denied the allegation but eventually dropped out. Troy Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, quickly replaced him as the Democratic nominee. Jackson had run for governor earlier this year as a progressive aligned with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the same mold as Platner.

That left Jackson roughly 100 days between becoming the Democratic standard-bearer and Election Day.

Elsewhere, Democrats left opportunities on the table. In Montana, the Democratic nominee declined to step aside for an independent candidate, likely ending any chance of making a once-winnable race competitive. And in Louisiana, a marquee name like former Gov. John Bel Edwards for Democrats never entered the race.

“When a client would let me put the Senate race in, the numbers were not good for Julia,” John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster whose clients are typically Republican, said, referring to Rep. Julia Letlow, the GOP Senate nominee. “You had a contentious primary and runoff, and I don’t believe the factions of the Republican Party really healed, so to speak.”

Republicans’ self-made struggles

Voters who still blame Democrats for economic woes, two years after the party’s 2024 collapse, may be Republicans’ best hope.

“2018 was a blue wave where people were pissed at Republicans and wanted to vote for Democrats,” said Andrew Mamo, a Democratic strategist who advises The Bench, a group involved in several key Senate races. “2026 looks like it’s shaping up to be a moment where people are pissed at everyone and the people in power and want something new and different.”

In that kind of environment, candidates matter, and that is where Republicans have hurt themselves most.

“A lot of this was self-inflicted because the president picked some bad candidates,” a former White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told MS NOW.

Trump’s primary endorsements helped saddle the party with nominees seen as lackluster in Texas, Georgia and South Carolina.

In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp pushed former college football coach Derek Dooley to take on Ossoff. That effort failed. Before the primary runoff, Trump instead endorsed Rep. Mike Collins, a conservative whose past positions and baggage left Republicans worried about his chances. He headed into Election Day as a long shot.

“I think President Trump has always had an ability to turn out the low propensity people that are out there working hard every day, the forgotten men and women of this country,” Collins recently told reporters when asked about running so close to the leader of the GOP.

In Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn warned Republican primary voters that choosing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was impeached and acquitted, over him could bring political peril. He told MS NOW during the primary that it would be a “kiss of death.” Paxton beat Cornyn anyway, despite his baggage, with a late show of support from the president.

Democrats argue that nominating Paxton was a costly mistake. It has certainly been an expensive one: The race is the most expensive in the country this cycle, and Republican spending on it since Paxton won the primary runoff has topped $280 million, according to AdImpact.

Kansas, of all places

For all the money flowing to Republicans from Trump’s orbit and its allies, where the president spent the campaign’s final Sunday is telling.

His first rally was in Iowa, a state he won by 13 points. Then he went to Kansas, which last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.

A year ago, Democrats were staring at a starkly unfavorable map. Back then, the idea that Marshall, the Senate Republican whose re-election would be on the ballot, was in real danger of losing would have seemed borderline ludicrous. Now even some Republicans are uneasy with Marshall’s handling of the race, and Trump’s actions that have roiled portions of the farm-heavy state bring their own aspect of animosity.

Marshall, during an election eve appearance on Fox News, said, “No one’s been arrogant, no one’s worked harder than we have to raise the money.”

His Democratic opponent is Adam Hamilton, the pastor of a Kansas megachurch who traces the tight race to “a war in Iran that nobody wanted and nobody understands why we need” and what he calls “the corruption in Washington, the chaos in Washington.”

Trump and Vance have both turned their attention to keeping the seat in GOP hands. But for Marshall, whose own path to Washington came through defeating more firebrand-style Republicans over the years, the environment is not only about the president. How he is handling the moment, and the pressure of attention, may matter as well.

“Marshall was not a good candidate,” said a former Kansas Republican official, granted anonymity to share a candid assessment. “He doesn’t talk well in front of groups. … He kind of just blew it off.”

Alex Tabet, Mychael Schnell and Zack Stanton contributed reporting to this article.

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