On Nov. 3 news consumers are likely to come across information unique to and part of the quintessential election night experience: exit polls. Unlike polls done before the election, exit polls ask people who they voted for after they cast their ballot, often when they exit their polling place.

Exit polls can provide early insight into the outcome of an election. But they cover far more ground than just the question “Who did you vote for?”

Exit polls can provide early insight into the outcome of an election. But they cover far more ground than just the question “Who did you vote for?”

Exit poll questions range from big-picture issues like the economy to state-specific topics like a candidate’s experience. Where pre-election polls provide a snapshot of where a race stands leading up to an election, exit polls enable journalists to unpack the “why” underlying the election outcome in real time.

They identify the key issues driving voters, and which candidates different segments of the electorate favor. They can tell us, for instance, if those who cast ballots in the 2026 midterms were motivated by the economy or the Iran war, and whether women, Latinos or young voters behaved differently than in previous elections.

To produce the next generation of exit poll data, MS NOW is collaborating with several other news organizations in an extensive evaluation of people’s voting decisions in a project we call The Voter Poll. On election night, our elections team will be processing representative data from all 50 states about who people voted for and what was on their mind as they cast their ballot.

We plan to poll approximately 100,000 voters at physical polling locations, online and by phone, providing us a national sample of more than 75,000 respondents, as well as samples in all 50 states.

The Voter Poll data will arrive in waves throughout Election Day and is processed in real time. The results are then released in stages on election night. The earliest you might see any Voter Poll estimates is 5 p.m. ET on Election Day. That initial release may include the characteristics and emerging views of the electorate, but it will not include questions that indicate the outcome of a particular race. And importantly, results can shift slightly as more data comes in before all the polls close.

Questions about which candidates voters chose will not be reported until polls are scheduled to close in a state and voting has ended. For example, if you want to see how different groups of Texans voted in the Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, look out for The Voter Poll results at 9 p.m. ET, when polls are closed statewide in Texas.

Here’s how the project works:

Who conducts The Voter Poll?

The Voter Poll is a collaboration between seven news organizations — MS NOW, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC News and The Associated Press — and the survey research firm SSRS. Before the election, the organizations discuss methodological issues and decide on the data sampling plan and survey questions to ask in each state. SSRS is an independent, nonpartisan research organization responsible for conducting the poll, including collecting and processing data from a representative sample of verified voters across all 50 states.

What types of questions are included in the poll?

The Voter Poll asks respondents not only which candidates they chose, but also about their decision-making process, including the reasons behind their vote and when they decided whom to support. Voters in all locations are asked about what drove their vote for the U.S. House, while voters in specific states are asked about their U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, and even some ballot measures.

The initial answers are part of a longer survey. Voters are also asked for their views on government and other salient issues like the cost of living, immigration and foreign policy. They will also be asked some questions about their personal background, including their age, race, gender and education level. These demographic measurements enable us to both examine how different groups voted and ensure that the underlying data is representative of the entire electorate.

How are participants contacted for The Voter Poll?

In several key states, The Voter Poll closely mirrors a traditional exit poll. Interviewers will be stationed outside polling locations, and they will ask voters to fill out a short, confidential survey after they cast their vote. Not everyone is surveyed. To be fair and consistent in who is selected to participate, and ensure the sample is random, interviewers survey someone after a set number of people have cast their ballots (for example, every fifth person).

As more people vote early, the poll methodology has evolved to meet them where they are. That means voters are now contacted by phone, mail and email, with options to take the survey online or on the phone with a live interviewer. The goal is to reach voters in a variety of ways and give them a comfortable option for taking the survey. Whichever way voters opt to participate, their answers are kept anonymous.

For those who will have already voted, which is confirmed by reviewing state records, their candidate preferences are marked accordingly. Those who haven’t yet cast a ballot will receive a follow-up survey in the hours just before polls close to determine who they actually voted for and how they cast their ballot.

How do we know those polled actually voted?

Respondents interviewed in person are verified to be voters at the polling place, while advance voters are identified by matching respondents to voter files maintained by state election offices. Even though we can’t physically see these people leave the polls, we can verify that they have cast their ballot by cross-checking their information from state officials. People contacted who cannot vote, such as those under age 18 or people who are not citizens, will not be able to take the survey.

How can we ensure The Voter Poll is accurate?

The Voter Poll has been carefully designed to accurately estimate the American electorate nationally and in each state. The data is collected through the multimodal design explained above, and is then processed using the best available information about the electorate, including voter registration files and Election Day turnout information. The sophisticated methods are founded on best practices in survey research and developed by leading experts in the field.

That said, The Voter Poll comes with margins of error, as there is some uncertainty inherent in the process of surveying people. The numbers reported from it are estimates. Early in the night, before we know the actual results of the election, the numbers may differ slightly from the final results. Eventually, each state’s data is weighted to the election results there to make the data more accurate.

The post How The Voter Poll, MS NOW’s election exit-polling project, works appeared first on MS NOW.

From MS Now.