Democratic sweep locks in Thomas and Alito for an uncertain Supreme Court ride

The Supreme Court wasn’t literally on the midterm elections ballot. But Democrats winning control of the Senate, which decides whether to confirm a president’s judicial nominees, ensures they will have a say in filling (or not filling) any vacancies once the new majority is seated in January.

Democrats are projected to control a solid Senate majority, with at least 54 seats out of 100. The Alaska and Mississippi races have not been called as of Wednesday morning, so that margin could grow.

That puts the brightest spotlight on the court’s two senior-most members, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, who have also been the most likely to side with the current administration. President Donald Trump called them “legends” in September, when they were the only two dissenters from the court’s refusal to approve his desired mail ballot restrictions for the midterms.

“These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court, they are merely a shell of their original selves,” the president said of his own three appointees in the same social media post in which he lauded Thomas and Alito.

Trump named Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett to the bench in his first term. That gave Republican appointees a 6-3 majority on the court, which has backed the president and his party in a series of landmark cases, while also rejecting some of their most extreme appeals. Chief Justice John Roberts is the sixth GOP appointee, having been nominated by President George W. Bush, as was Alito. Thomas was appointed by Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush.

To be sure, Thomas, Alito or both could retire now and give Trump and the outgoing Republican Senate majority a chance to confirm their successors. Yet, at least before Tuesday night, both justices had signaled they will not step down, with Alito telling Bloomberg that he plans to stay on at least through the current court term, which doesn’t end until after the new Senate majority is seated. If Thomas stays on through the following court term, he will become the longest-serving justice ever.

Even if one or both of those justices agree to step down to rush their replacements before Democrats take control, it is uncertain whether the outgoing GOP Senate majority would be able to confirm suitable successors in their eyes.

Given all of that, lame-duck Supreme Court confirmations might be unlikely this year. But they would not be shocking, in light of Republicans’ historical prioritization of the court and the uncertain future that otherwise lies ahead for the Trump-anointed legendary duo. They are in their late 70s, which is not terribly old by the court’s standards. But especially if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028, the pair would be into their 80s by the next potential time that a Republican president and Senate could replace them.

The court’s newest justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson, was appointed by President Joe Biden after Justice Stephen Breyer, a Clinton appointee, retired at 83 amid pressure from the left to avoid the scenario that let Trump appoint Barrett: the death of Clinton-appointed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg at 87 in September 2020.

Ginsburg had brushed off pressure to retire when President Barack Obama was still in office and could name her replacement. Her death allowed Trump and Senate Republicans led by Mitch McConnell to push through Barrett’s election year confirmation (after Republicans had refused to consider Obama nominee Merrick Garland for the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat in 2016 on the grounds that it was an election year).

As far as we know, Thomas and Alito are not battling serious health issues like Ginsburg did. Still, whether they will similarly be replaced by a president and Senate intent on undoing their legacies could now be an open question for years to come.

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