More than a week after Election Day, Mississippi’s Senate race between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith remains unresolved. As of Wednesday afternoon, MS NOW now characterizes the race as “leans Democratic” following a consequential ballot deadline in a contest likely to be decided by a few thousand votes.

Although Colom has maintained a hairline lead over Hyde-Smith since Nov. 3, MS NOW previously rated the race as “too close to call” because thousands of outstanding absentee and provisional ballots were still being received and processed across the state’s 82 counties. The last day for election officials to receive mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day and for outstanding affidavit ballots to be fixed through a process known as curing was Tuesday.

Colom, who would be the first Black senator elected from Mississippi since Reconstruction and the first Democrat to win a Senate seat there since 1982, was leading Hyde-Smith by 4,404 votes Wednesday. MS NOW rates the race as “leans Democratic” due to Hyde-Smith’s vanishing path to catch up. Colom’s vote margin has ticked up each day, and at this point, Hyde-Smith would need to win at least 64% of the estimated remaining votes to count to catch up with him.

In the counties with updates since election night, it’s Colom who has been overperforming. He is winning a higher share of affidavit ballots than he got from ballots counted on election night in these counties, typically by around 20 points. Even in some Republican counties, Colom has won the ballots processed this week. Given Colom’s strength, and the small number of ballots left to get through in the coming days, Hyde-Smith is unlikely to catch up. In fact, Colom’s margin may continue to expand.

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson announced Tuesday that 76 of Mississippi’s 82 counties had uploaded uncertified results and four counties had reported certified results. Of the 808 affidavit ballots processed Wednesday, 703 were votes for Colom. The final margin will come down to the unknown number of uncounted affidavits and absentee by mail ballots.

Friday marks the next pivotal deadline, when all counties must upload their certified election results.

Democrats have already flipped seven Senate seats from Republican control this election cycle, winning 54 Senate seats to Republicans’ 44 so far. A Colom win would strengthen Democrats’ majority in the upper chamber.

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From MS Now.