In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom has defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. By many metrics, Colom’s victory is nothing short of remarkable: Mississippi was the “reddest” of Democrats’ Senate pickups this year, a state President Donald Trump carried by 23 points in 2024.

So how did Colom do it? He won with an electorate that looked different from 2024’s, a small but decisive slice of Trump voters and Mississippians who wanted a check on the president.

Colom’s raw vote total has exceeded Kamala Harris’ 2024 total — an impressive feat, given that midterms draw far fewer voters than presidential elections. With 99% of votes counted, Colom has received roughly 473,000 votes, already several thousand more than Harris’ roughly 467,000. At the same time, Hyde-Smith earned nearly 300,000 fewer votes than Trump won in the state two years ago.

Colom’s relative strength was not limited to any one place. He won 38 of Mississippi’s 82 counties, including 18 that Trump carried in 2024. Ten of those were counties Democrats also lost in 2020.

Colom didn’t just win parts of the state that backed Trump heavily — he did so decisively. He carried 10 counties by double digits that Trump carried in 2024. In Forrest County, named after the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, Colom won by more than 10 points. In Lowndes and Pike, both Trump 2024 counties, his margins were 16 and 18 points, respectively. Even where Colom trailed Hyde-Smith, his vote totals often approached or exceeded Harris’ in 2024. That held Hyde-Smith to single-digit margins in counties like Wayne and Lauderdale, which Trump carried by double digits.

A different electorate

The Voter Poll suggests that, measured by past vote, Mississippi’s 2026 electorate remained quite Republican, but that turnout patterns shifted it to the left. Trump won Mississippi 61%-38% in 2024. This year’s voters told us they supported him 54%-42% in 2024, about half his actual margin. These numbers are estimates but suggest that hundreds of thousands of Trump voters in Mississippi didn’t cast a Senate vote and that Harris voters were much likelier to turn out this year.

Turnout was especially high in majority-Black counties, which Colom won overwhelmingly. There, turnout was roughly 88% of 2024 presidential levels, compared with 75% in all other counties.

But even as Colom’s raw vote performance rivaled Democratic presidential totals, turnout alone likely does not account for his margin of victory. Data from the MS NOW Voter Poll suggests that voters distinguished Colom from the Democratic Party overall. They also saw him as a potential check on the Trump administration.

The Trump crossover

In addition to strong turnout, Colom needed some crossover support to win — and that is exactly what he got. He retained nearly all (99%) of Harris’ voters who turned out this year. By contrast, just 88% of Trump voters supported Hyde-Smith, while 8% picked Colom, according to The Voter Poll. That may seem like a small crossover rate but it was enough to be decisive.

Colom also won voters with annual family incomes under $50,000, a group that made up a plurality of Senate voters in the state. Hyde-Smith won those in the next-highest income category, $50,000 to $100,000.

The Voter Poll data also suggests Colom’s electoral success stems in part from his ability to distance himself from his party. Views of both parties are underwater in Mississippi, but more voters hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party (58%) than the Republican Party (52%). Yet Colom won 15% of those with an unfavorable view of his party, as well as 6% of Republicans.

Winning on the economy

Colom also performed well on the issue on which Mississippi voters express greater skepticism toward Democrats: the economy. The GOP holds an 11-point advantage over the Democratic Party on which party is better able to handle the economy (47% to 36%). But even as 42% of voters noted the economy as the most important issue facing the country today, most of these voters supported Colom over Hyde-Smith. And Colom’s vote share grew among voters expressing greater concern about the cost of gas and groceries.

A check on Trump

Finally, Colom benefited from backlash to the Trump administration, even in deep-red Mississippi. A majority of the state’s midterm voters disapprove of Trump, and nearly half strongly disapprove. Ninety-six percent of those strong disapprovers backed Colom. Most Mississippi voters also feel Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S. About two-thirds said Congress is not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency, and those voters broke for Colom, 72% to 26%.

There’s also evidence of late momentum for Colom. Voters who decided whom to back in the last month broke for Colom by 15 points, while those who decided earlier were more likely to pick Hyde-Smith.

Taken together, the numbers point to a candidate who benefited from favorable turnout but didn’t rely on that alone. In a state Trump carried by 23 points two years ago, Colom needed a changed electorate, a sliver of Trump voters and backlash against the president. He got all three.

Renjini Antony and David Parkinson contributed to this report.

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From MS Now.