Donald Trump’s policy toward Cuba is entirely straightforward: The American president intends to bring down the government in Havana, largely by strangling the country through an oil blockade. To that end, the Republican administration has spent recent months threatening to punish other countries that might be inclined to provide Cuba with the resources it needs.
The point of the policy is hardly subtle: The White House intends to push Cuban officials to the point of desperation, making it easier for the administration to impose its will. The longer the country goes without oil, the weaker its regime becomes.
So it came as quite a surprise when Russia recently announced that it would send an oil tanker to Cuba — and Trump said he was “fine” with it.
Having faced no consequences the first time, it appears Vladimir Putin’s government decided to do it again. The New York Times reported:
Russia is sending a second tanker of crude oil to Cuba, a government official said on Thursday, after one sent by the Kremlin reached Cuban territory earlier this week, ending a de facto U.S. oil blockade on the island. […]
If permitted by the United States to dock, this second tanker would signal a further softening by the Trump administration amid ongoing negotiations with the Cuban government.
It’s not altogether clear that Trump fully appreciates what’s happening here.
At issue are developments in which one U.S. adversary (Russia) is benefiting from a transaction with a different U.S. adversary (Cuba), while deliberately undermining an existing U.S. policy (an ongoing oil embargo).
As the week got underway, a reporter asked the American president about Russia’s moves and he said, “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that.”
Asked whether this might help Putin, Trump added, “He loses one boat load of oil, that’s all it is. It’s fine.”
Except, Russia isn’t “losing” anything. It’s ignoring an American blockade and selling oil that puts money in Moscow’s pocket.
Even Trump should be able to understand this. On one hand, he created an oil blockade to smother the Cuban government, but on the other hand, his friends in Moscow wanted an exception to the policy, and he was happy to oblige.
Why would he allow one foreign adversary to assist another, while undermining his own administration’s policy? Giving Cuba time and resources that it would otherwise lack? Trump didn’t elaborate.
Complicating matters is that the U.S. is at war with Iran, and there’s ample evidence to suggest that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence that could help it strike American targets.
The initial reaction from Trump and his team to that evidence was total indifference. This was followed by news that the Republican administration agreed effectively to reward Putin’s regime by temporarily easing oil sanctions on the country — twice.
Trump then explicitly made the case that he understands Russia’s role in helping Iran, since the U.S. has assisted Ukraine.
And in case that weren’t quite enough, the Republican is now letting Moscow undermine his own policy in Cuba, too.
Trump is no doubt aware of concerns that he was long ago compromised by Moscow, and he’s still not exactly going out of his way to temper those suspicions.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.
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