Economic forecasts have deteriorated in recent weeks, reflecting the upheaval from federal layoffs, tariff moves and immigration roundups.
Category: Recession and Depression
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Gaming Out Trump’s Next Tariff Moves
In his address to Congress, the president made clear that his new trade levies were here to stay, acknowledging it might create “a little disturbance.” Analysts forecast what that might look like.
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Lutnick Remarks on Removing Government Spending in GDP Data Raises Fears
Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested government spending should be excluded from data about U.S. economic output.
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Lutnick Remarks on Removing Government Spending in GDP Data Raises Fears
Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, suggested government spending should be excluded from data about U.S. economic output.
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Can Low Unemployment Last Under Trump?
Hiring has slowed, but joblessness remains at levels defying economic norms. Big policy changes under a new administration could test that resilience.
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The Economy Is Finally Stable. Is That About to Change?
President-elect Donald J. Trump’s proposals on tariffs, immigration, taxes and deregulation may have far-reaching and contradictory effects, adding uncertainty to forecasts.
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GDP Report Shows US Economy Grew at 2.8% Rate
In a key economic report released just days before the presidential election, growth was again driven by robust consumer spending.
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U.S. Economy Had Stronger Rebound From Pandemic, G.D.P. Data Shows
Updated figures show that gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew faster in 2021, 2022 and early 2023 than previously reported.
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As Federal Reserve Readies Interest Rate Cut, Risks to Job Market Still Loom
The Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates this week. Recent jobs data have been a reminder that a soft landing is not yet assured.
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Why Low Layoff Numbers Don’t Mean the Labor Market Is Strong
Past economic cycles show that unemployment starts to tick up ahead of a recession, with wide-scale layoffs coming only later.
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Slowdown Déjà Vu Rattles the Markets
Investors sent technology stocks and other assets tumbling on concerns that the U.S. economy could be headed for a hard landing.
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Why the Fed’s Jackson Hole Confab Matters for Wall St. and the Economy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual conference in Wyoming gets a lot of buzz. Here’s why it matters for Wall Street and the economy.