Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan advanced in Alaska’s all-party primary for U.S. Senate Wednesday, along with former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a pivotal race that could determine which party controls the Senate in November. 

Sullivan’s advancement is a major boost for Republican optimism going into November’s general election. It came after a challenger who shares the senator’s name entered the race as a Republican and prevailed in a legal fight to remain on Alaska’s primary ballot. The move stoked fear among the national GOP that the appearance of two Sullivans on the ballot would siphon votes meant for the incumbent in a tight race.

Sullivan is running for his third Senate term with the endorsement of President Donald Trump. Alaska operates on a unique nonpartisan primary system that advances the top four vote-getters to the general election regardless of their party affiliation, rather than setting up intraparty contests. 

Sullivan’s advancement is a data point for national Democrats who have deemed Peltola’s candidacy one of their strongest shots at regaining control of Congress’ upper chamber. 

Peltola and Sullivan were the most notable contenders among the 16 candidates running for the state’s open Senate seat, with their marquee matchup drawing millions of dollars of outside spending. But the contest took an unusual turn when a retired Petersburg schoolteacher — who is named Daniel J. Sullivan — mounted a challenge to the Republican incumbent in a move widely condemned by Trump and the national GOP. 

Sen. Sullivan and his national Republican allies alleged that the challenger was a fake candidate recruited by Democrats to sow confusion among voters and to assist Peltola. Peltola and the Democratic Party have said they have no affiliation with Daniel J. Sullivan’s campaign, and the candidate has said that he is running genuinely to better Alaskans’ lives.

With the contest now narrowed, Peltola will carry the torch for national Democrats this fall as she aims to topple Sullivan in a state that is historically red in federal elections, and which Trump carried in the last three presidential elections. Peltola, who has twice been elected to the state’s at-large U.S. House seat, swiftly rose after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., recruited her for the job. 

Peltola has run a moderate campaign grounded in cross-party appeal. The former congresswoman, who coined the phrase “fish, family, freedom” as her campaign slogan, has thus far played to the center with her support for fuel refining and fisheries in Alaska. She highlighted her opposition to President Joe Biden’s environmental and energy regulations while she was in Congress, arguing that the restrictions hurt the supply chain for gasoline and diesel in the state and has voiced support for the Alaska liquefied natural gas export pipeline project. 

That has so far proven to work for Peltola. She significantly outraised Sen. Sullivan during the primary election cycle, raking in $18 million with more than $4.6 million in the bank at the end of July, according to campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission. Sullivan has raised about $11.7 million, but boasts a larger war chest, ending with $7.3 million in the bank during the same period. 

The winner of Alaska’s general election in November will be determined by ranked-choice voting. The appearance of both incumbent Dan Sullivan and the political newcomer who shares his name on the ballot carries the possibility of taking votes away from the GOP front-runner.

But even still, the race between Peltola and Sullivan will be closely contested. A recent Alaska Survey Research poll that tested the final round of the state’s ranked-choice voting found Peltola narrowly led Sullivan by 1.6%, with an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. A late June New York Times/Siena poll found Sullivan with a 2-point lead over Peltola. 

With more than $56 million already spent on ads in the race, which have dominated Alaska’s limited airwaves for months, the general election contest is also likely to shatter spending records. Republicans currently hold control of the Senate, while Democrats will need to hold on to every seat they currently control and flip four seats to win back the chamber in November. Alaska, for its part, is a key to the Senate.

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