How Democrats could win big in November — and still lose to Trump

Democrats running in the Nov. 3 midterm elections have largely coalesced around three key goals: lowering the cost of living, pursuing accountability for the Trump scandals of the recent past and thwarting the Trump agenda going forward.

But even if they flip both houses of Congress, it is unclear how much progress Democrats can make on those fronts because Donald Trump will retain his veto power and continue his history of ignoring congressional budgets and subpoenas.

It is not great politics to advertise weakness, but voters deserve to know what to expect from a Democratic-controlled Congress. If Democrats sell voters an inordinately optimistic view of what they can accomplish, they will be setting themselves up to fail. They need a detailed, operational game plan so they can hit the ground running in January.

In other words, Democrats need an aggressive yet pragmatic Project 2027 — one on which they can actually deliver.

The political calculus of government shutdowns changes with Democrats in control of one or both houses of Congress.

Getting there, however, means answering many thorny questions about how to deal with a hostile and volatile president. That is not something Democratic leaders are talking about right now — at least not in public. There may be a few areas of genuine bipartisan agreement, such as building on the housing bill Congress passed in June (that Trump did not sign but did not veto either.)

But by and large, to enact major legislation, Democrats will have to negotiate with Trump.

How do they intend to do that, and what are their top priorities for those negotiations?

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., outlined Tuesday an affordability agenda that he said enjoys  “uniform Democratic support”:

We have to reverse the Medicaid cuts. We should extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. We should restore congressional authority as it relates to tariffs, because the Trump tariffs are making life more expensive for the American people. And we should end decisively — if it’s still going on — Donald Trump’s reckless and costly war of choice in the Middle East.

Jeffries added that Democratic working groups will in the next few weeks develop more “concrete legislative proposal that we can aggressively lean into.” What is the plan to get Trump to go along on any of those? Is there one?

As for rolling back the most cruel and damaging policies of Trump’s first two years, the first big question is: What, if anything, is non-negotiable? Ending the Iran war? Reining in ICE? Reversing illegal rescissions? Withdrawing executive orders and memos that limit voting and threaten free speech?

One thing a Democratic majority can do on its own is aggressively pursue investigations — with Trump’s corruption front and center — and engage in oversight of Trump’s weaponization and sabotage of federal government agencies.

The second big question: What are Democrats willing or able to use as leverage? How far are they ready to go if Trump balks? The political calculus of government shutdowns changes with Democrats in control of one or both houses of Congress, and a long shutdown is self-defeating for a party that actually cares about governing.

Democrats have an urgent moral obligation to put an end to Trump’s inhumane and lawless immigration policies. Demands should include: banning masks, aggressive tactics and warrantless arrests; ending mandatory detention without access to bond hearings; extending Temporary Protected Status for immigrants whose home countries remain unsafe; respecting asylum claims; admitting some non-white refugees; and putting an end to the oppressive investigations and prosecutions of protesters.

But what are their bargaining chips? And what if they go all out on affordability measures first? Will they have any of those chips left?

How do they stay on offense, rather than going on defense?

Democrats will certainly want to reclaim Congress’ singular role in setting budgets, declaring war and imposing tariffs. But what are they ready to do if Trump ignores them and continues to do whatever he feels like? They can sue him, but the Supreme Court’s extremist majority will almost inevitably side with the Republican president.

One thing a Democratic majority can do on its own is aggressively pursue investigations — with Trump’s corruption front and center — and engage in oversight of Trump’s weaponization and sabotage of federal government agencies. But what will Democrats do when the Trump administration refuses to honor congressional subpoenas, as happened in the first Trump administration? Here they may have to rely on revelations from third-party subpoenas, leaks and state records creating enormous public pressure for Trump to respond. (Trump — at least partially — responded to congressional demands for the Jeffrey Epstein files, for instance, once he was almost alone in opposing their release.)

A Democratic majority in the House can of course impeach Trump and his Cabinet members. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would top almost anyone’s list. But unless a dozen or more Senate Republicans come to their senses, removal will not follow.

A Democratic majority in the Senate can refuse to confirm Trump’s nominees to lead government agencies. But what will they do when Trump puts those appointees — or even worse choices — in acting roles?

The ability to reject Trump’s judicial nominees, especially to the highest courts, could end up being one of Senate Democrats’ most consequential powers if they are in the majority. They should be ready with a plan for how to use it.

As they give their stump speeches in the final two months of the 2026 midterm campaign, Democrats should remember that Trump’s biggest political liability in his second term turned out to be that he did not deliver what he promised, most notably lower prices and an end to overseas wars.

Democrats must avoid that mistake. For the 2028 presidential election, they will obviously need to develop and declare a far-reaching, hugely ambitious, nothing-less-than-revolutionary Project 2029 in order to recover from Trumpism and move America forward. But first, with Trump still president, they need a realistic agenda they can translate into action. What can the public reasonably expect will be better if they turn Congress over to Democrats? Voters are entitled to an honest answer.

The post How Democrats could win big in November — and still lose to Trump appeared first on MS NOW.

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