MS NOW is adding Kansas and South Carolina to its list of Senate races to watch, two states that looked safely Republican earlier this year and now look somewhat less so. Republicans are still favored to hold both seats, but recent signals show these races could be somewhat more competitive than observers thought just a few months ago.

The Democratic candidates in both states have generated strong interest and shown they can raise money. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton is a well-known Methodist pastor running as a moderate. In South Carolina, Annie Andrews is a pediatrician champing at the bit to debate Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat held by her late brother, Lindsey, and is now trying to hold it for a full six-year term.

What little polling we have seen makes both races look competitive, but there is not much quality, nonpartisan data to go on. A better starting point is each state’s partisan baseline. Both Kansas and South Carolina tend to vote about 16 points to the right of the nation, meaning that if the national electorate is divided 50-50, Republicans in these states tend to win by about 16 points. In 2024, when the country was very narrowly divided, Trump took 57% of the vote in Kansas and 58% in South Carolina.

National polling today suggests a shift toward the Democrats of seven to nine points. If these two states shift uniformly with the rest of the country, that 16-point Republican advantage becomes a single-digit one — which, in a wave environment, could mean surprisingly close races.

None of that is guaranteed. It is what polls currently indicate, but polls can change. Even a strong Democratic year would leave both states very difficult to flip. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since before World War II, and rural, religious states like it have drifted further right in recent years. The last time this South Carolina seat was on the ballot, in 2020 — a good year for Democrats nationally — Lindsey Graham still beat Democrat Jaime Harrison by 10 points.

Both of these states are rated as “Likely Republican,” putting them just a tick below “Safely Republican.” Today’s updates reflect a growing set of states that the GOP and its allied outside groups might have taken for granted in past election cycles and may have to spend real money on this year.

Democrats do not need to flip either state to take back the Senate. Their path runs through flipping more winnable states in the Midwest and South, including Ohio and North Carolina. So the Democratic Party has its own decision to make about how much time, energy and money to sink into these red states.

Still, if Democrats come within single digits in Kansas or South Carolina — even in defeat — it will signal on election night that a lot is going right for the party across the country.

The post Kansas and South Carolina join MS NOW’s Senate races to watch appeared first on MS NOW.

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From MS Now.