One Middle East expert predicted that President Donald Trump’s newly announced plan to secure Hamas’ disarmament is “likely to fail,” arguing the proposal faces significant logistical and political obstacles.

Steven Cook, a senior fellow in Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told MS NOW that the roadmap is unlikely to result in Hamas giving up its weapons, given a lack of international participation and skepticism from key regional players.

Trump touted the deal Thursday on social media, calling the agreement brokered by his Board of Peace a “monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.” However, Cook questioned the viability of the international organization established earlier this year as an alternative to the United Nations.

“What we know is, despite the pledges to donate millions and billions of dollars to the Board of Peace, it is mostly broke,” Cook said. 

While Hamas did confirm on Friday that it had agreed to a framework, the organization made it clear it would only surrender its weapons after Israel committed to fulfill commitments laid out in the October ceasefire agreement.

Cook said the competing demands of Israel and Hamas make implementation especially difficult.

“The Israelis are going to say they are not going to withdraw until Hamas disarms,” he explained. “Hamas is going to say it won’t disarm until Israel withdraws, and it’s going to be litigated forever.”

“This is an agreement that is likely to fail,” he said. “Hamas seems unlikely to actually disarm.”

Cook pointed to silence from key regional actors as one indication that has him unconvinced the proposal can succeed.

“The major players in the Arab world so far have said nothing and are not really directly involved in this, which would suggest that they remain quite skeptical,” he said.

He also noted the timing of the announcement, which comes as the administration continues to struggle to bring its war with Iran to an end. Cook told MS NOW that Trump may have shifted focus back to Israel’s war with Gaza since “he doesn’t have much else of a success in his other efforts in the Middle East.”

“The president really doesn’t have an answer for the problem he’s created for himself in Iran,” Cook said. “They have threatened escalation. They have escalated, and the Iranians have not changed.”

You can watch Cook’s full analysis in the clip at the top of the page.

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