Troy Jackson survived his debates with Susan Collins. Here’s what to watch for in the final days.

The four debates in Maine’s U.S. Senate race, between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, are over. Early voting is underway. And while Jackson survived the quartet of clashes, the race remains as close as ever.

Debate expectations for Jackson were between middling and low. His down-home style was compared to the senator’s highly polished vibe. He had far less experience in high-profile debates. But ultimately Collins and Jackson both effectively delivered their core messages.

As in previous campaigns, Collins tried to claim the mantle of bipartisanship and argue that only she can deliver for Maine. She shared laundry lists of bills she worked on and specific projects helping towns. (Her campaign also focuses on this in ads; I even received a detailed text to my phone claiming credit for “$59 million for the City of Bangor.”)

“Sen. Collins is like an arsonist who helped set the fire and then she wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out,” Jackson said in the first debate.

Jackson took both parts of Collins’ case head on. He again noted Collins’ record of backing Trump 96% of the time, contrary to her assertions of bipartisanship. He contended that Collins’ deliverables are woefully insufficient compared to the cuts she has backed. “Sen. Collins is like an arsonist who helped set the fire and then she wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put it out,” he said in the first debate.

Three debates later, Collins herself helped the case against her bipartisan bonafides. A moderator asked her to identify a time when a vote against Republicans changed the outcome. Collins muffed. She cited opposition she organized to Pete Hegseth’s nomination as defense secretary, which failed after one senator, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, changed his mind at the last minute. “So that didn’t change the outcome,” one of the moderators replied.

Jackson’s arsonist comparison was not the only memorable image he conjured. After Collins bragged that she stopped Canadian tariffs on road salt, the Democrat replied, “We can’t eat road salt.” Memes proliferated featuring images of a truck carrying road salt labeled as “Meals on Wheels” and Collins pictured as Marie Antoinette saying, “Let them eat road salt.” A Mainer at the Fryeburg Fair confronted Collins with Jackson’s remark.

Beyond its virality online, Jackson’s remark bore real-world heft. Food prices are up and heating oil prices soared 81% since last year. Often using examples about himself and others, Jackson focused on understanding working people, the necessity of a better healthcare system and fighting oligarchic power. He has also challenged Collins’ contention that he would not be able to help Maine like her.

Democrats have often accused the Maine press of catering to Collins, publicizing stories about her securing money for Maine while not covering her contradictions. This year is different.

None of the aforementioned exchanges got the most national attention, though. The one that grabbed out-of-state headlines arose after a protester with a fake press pass interrupted the last forum to rail against the environmental impact of data centers and corporations’ financial power. Collins quickly and without evidence claimed, “So this is obviously one of Troy’s supporters.”

“Oh, shut up. I don’t even know that kid,” Jackson replied.

“Oh, right,” Collins answered.

In a very close race like this election, any moment can matter. But it is striking that, afterward, many Mainers did not find Jackson’s remark problematic. Journalist Kevin Miller of Maine Public Radio wrote that Jackson’s comment was “more flippant than mean-spirited. The two rivals even seemed to exchange snarky smiles before the debate quickly resumed without future disruption.” On a post-debate panel, reporter Rob Caldwell said that, given the negativity of the campaign, the candidates were “going to get ticked off. If they didn’t they wouldn’t be human. … There are a lot of worse things that they could have said.” Callers to a radio show the following day were divided over whether Jackson was rude or had rightly responded with a Maine “shaddup.”

Jackson’s remark was not what the Bangor Daily News highlighted in its front page after the final debate. Instead, the paper focused on Collins saying, “I think our democracy will be just fine,” while Jackson judged American democracy as “at risk” and observed that “Donald Trump is trying every trick in the book to keep power.”

Democrats have often accused the Maine press of catering to Collins, publicizing stories about her securing money for Maine while not covering her contradictions. This year is different. Jackson’s criticisms of Collins’ conflicting votes are getting coverage, and the press is highlighting pay-for-play corruption allegations and examining the dark-money billionaires disproportionately benefiting Collins.

The two campaigns have not been the same and probably will stay that way. Jackson is holding high-profile events with Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Collins’ most high-profile visitor is former Sen. Joe Manchin. Trump has not come and Collins would not want him. While Jackson uses his events to recruit canvassers and grow his field operation, Collins is helped by canvassers paid by Elon Musk.

Maine voters seem sick of the barrage of ads. Jackson’s grassroots operation and earned media look stronger.

Jackson closed with a “who’s on your side” message — the billionaires or the Maine people. Some ads feature past Collins voters who support Jackson now. Some of these voters cite Collins’ vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Collins is defending her Kavanaugh vote by saying that, despite his track record, she could not know he would overturn Roe v. Wade.

National Republicans’ closing message features sharply negative advertising claiming Jackson bullies women, calling him “a creep” and even attacking his relationship with Lana Pelletier, his longtime partner and the mother of his children. (The Collins campaign asked for the ad to be taken down but critics noted that Collins brought up Jackson’s family in a September interview in Politico and Pelletier has spoken out against the personal attack.)

Maine voters seem sick of the barrage of ads. Jackson’s grassroots operation and earned media look stronger, and Republicans are facing the same headwinds in Maine as elsewhere. But it is never easy to defeat an incumbent and Collins’ brand is strong.

Mainers will have to decide if they want to re-elect Collins, who thinks our republic is not threatened by Trump but brings targeted resources to Maine, or if they pick Jackson, a self-described “working-class guy with a funny accent” who pledges to change policies, lift up all Mainers and protect our constitutional order.

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