Democrats are leading or within striking distance in five Republican-held governor’s races this fall as President Donald Trump’s second term puts Republicans in a defensive position.

Heading into the final weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3, polling averages compiled by the website FiftyPlusOne show Democrats ahead in Iowa and Ohio, places where the party hasn’t won a governor’s race since 2006. Races in Georgia, Nevada and Texas are close, with Republicans narrowly ahead in close contests. Kansas is the outlier: Republicans are on track to defy national momentum and end eight years of leadership from the termed-out Democratic incumbent.

Each polling average comes with a range of uncertainty of a few points, which accounts for the margins of error of the individual polls that go into it.

Governor’s races tend to be less nationalized than Senate contests, in part because of the job itself. A governor typically has to craft a budget, oversee everything from the economy and taxes to healthcare, law enforcement and child welfare, and steer the state through whatever crisis may come. That gives candidates latitude in how closely to align with their party’s national leaders, whether to break from them or to run as their allies back home.

But Trump’s return to the White House has made that harder, with his administration’s decisions rippling down to state and local governments.

Democrats have long seen Iowa as their best pickup opportunity, where state Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by nearly nine points. Sand has tried to distance himself from the Democratic Party’s national identity at a time when its reputation has hurt candidates in redder parts of the country. A Democrat hasn’t won the Iowa governor’s race since 2006, when Chet Culver was elected to a single term before losing his re-election bid in 2010.

Ohio has turned out to be unexpectedly competitive in light of its recent political standing. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump ally who won the president’s early endorsement, has recent history on his side. Ted Strickland, the last Democrat to win the state’s governorship, served one term before losing to Republican John Kasich in 2010. Yet the polling average right now shows Democrat Amy Acton around four points ahead of Ramaswamy. Acton led the Ohio Department of Health under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Trump won the state by double digits just two years ago.

Republicans are on better ground in Georgia, Nevada and Texas, though their margins are thin in races that look closely matched.

In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has won his last three races for governor by double digits and is now seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Democrats hope to make gains up and down the ballot and could benefit from the struggles of Ken Paxton, the state’s controversial attorney general, in his U.S. Senate bid. Still, Abbott’s campaign is in a far stronger financial position than Hinojosa.

Out west in Nevada, Republican Joe Lombardo unseated Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak in 2022. Sisolak was the only incumbent governor to lose a re-election that year. Lombardo is now attempting to avoid following his predecessor as he faces a challenge this fall from Democratic state Attorney General Aaron Ford.

And in Georgia, wealthy businessman Rick Jackson won the Republican nomination despite both Trump and outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp picking against him before the party’s primary runoff. AdImpact data shows Jackson has a major spending advantage over his Democratic opponent, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. That edge could prove decisive.

But even if much goes their way nationally, Democrats fear losing Kansas, where Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited. She appears on track to be succeeded by Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson, a conservative Republican. The polling average shows Masterson ahead of Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher, even as the state’s U.S. Senate race playing out on the same ballot has signs of being a close contest.

Kabir Khanna contributed reporting to this article. 

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