Lawmakers left Washington for the holiday weekend on Friday, fleeing the chaos that once again threatened to engulf Capitol Hill. As the architect of much of that chaos, the president’s motivations seem relatively clear. But what about the Republican lawmakers who, for once, appeared ready to stand up to him?
It was just last month, during the talks to end the Department of Homeland Security shutdown, that President Donald Trump demanded congressional Republicans agree to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol through the special budget reconciliation process “no later” than June 1.
And indeed, the $72 billion funding bill appeared on the verge of being passed by the Senate, until Trump swooped in at the last minute and derailed it with the creation of his $1.776 “anti-weaponization” fund.
Senate Republicans typically offer more muted criticism, but this fund’s legal and ethical problems — or at least, the perception of those problems — was too much for some lawmakers to stomach.
Senate Republicans typically offer more muted criticism, but this fund’s legal and ethical problems — or at least, the perception of those problems — was too much for some lawmakers to stomach. And they subsequently unloaded on acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in an unusually frank closed-door meeting. According to Punchbowl News, “GOP senators — around 25 of them, an exceptionally high number for these closed-door meetings — took turns blasting the proposal and lamenting that they were being put in this situation.”
As a result, the vote was called off, Trump will not get his ICE and Border Patrol funding approved by the June deadline, and Republicans will have to go home to face their constituents and explain why they are fighting over ballrooms and potential payouts for convicted criminals that participated in the Jan. 6 attacks on our Capitol instead of finding ways to lower the price of gas and skyrocketing groceries.
“The White House dropped a bomb in the middle of a pretty well-planned-out reconciliation bill to help deliver on one of President Trump’s priorities,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, complained to NOTUS.
“It would’ve been nice if [the administration] consulted,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told MS NOW.
But here’s the kicker — Trump probably loves it.
Team Trump is coming off a hot primary winning streak. Trump-backed candidates won primaries against Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, although I’d bet you a Trump Coin that the president could not personally tell you much about either of the men who actually won.
Trump is also likely loving speculation that his endorsement may help secure a win for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in that state’s June 2 primary.
So, given all this momentum, why would Trump choose right now to push for this controversial IRS settlement? There’s no world in which such a “slush fund,” as many are calling the weaponization plan, would not draw intense scrutiny, setting off an instant debate about who would be eligible for taxpayer payouts.
I think the answer can be tied, as so many things are with Trump, to polling numbers.
It is no secret that Trump’s numbers have tanked. In fact, just about every week, there is a new survey pointing out just how badly voters think he is doing when it comes to the economy. Last week, a Fox News poll put his disapproval number at 61% overall. According to the same poll, among Republicans, his approval is currently a record low 80%. This suggests that he is losing some of his base — and that is reason for concern.
But one thing Trump has mastered is how to change the conversation. He has no response when it comes to the economy or even the Iran war, where peace negotiations remain stalled as the cost skyrockets each day. But when it comes to rallying his base, he knows retribution and protecting the Jan. 6 rioters can be a winning strategy.
His veritable battle cry during the 2024 campaign was: “I am your warrior, I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed: I am your retribution.” This attitude pushed him through the primary and, even after being convicted of 34 felonies, it helped him return to the White House.
Once safely seated behind the Resolute Desk once again, one of Trump’s first acts was to grant blanket clemency to nearly 1,600 people convicted, or awaiting trial or sentencing for Jan. 6 offenses. He knew it was important to keep that part of the MAGA base happy, and it really didn’t cost him much political capital.
Vulnerable Republican lawmakers need the support of non-MAGA Republicans and Independents, as well as Trump Republicans, to keep their seats.
Things have changed for the president since then. His mishandling of the Epstein files, his miscalculations on the war with Iran and his horrible management of the economy have all led to dissension and frustration, even among some in his base. So it should come as no surprise that he hopes a huge pot of taxpayer money will help win those people back, and reverse some of those falling approval numbers.
And therein lies the problem for Republicans. Trump’s base is devoted to him, and typically only shows up to vote for him. But vulnerable Republican lawmakers need the support of non-MAGA Republicans and Independents, as well as Trump Republicans, to keep their seats and, in the process, to hold on to the Senate and House majorities.
In this context, the “revolt” that we are seeing right now on the Hill is probably much less principled than it appears. Is this really the GOP coming to its senses, or is it a self-preservation tactic, as politicians try to find the balance between the leader of their party and the broader constituencies they need to win over in November.
Some Republicans, like Cassidy or retiring Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, technically have a lot less to lose now that their tenures are ending. But for everyone else, we’ve seen this story before. There is little doubt that most Republicans will fall back in line after a tweak here or there to the “anti-weaponization” fund — just enough that they can tell their voters back home that they did something. Meanwhile, Trump will continue to come up with new headaches for his party to deal with.
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