In the span of less than 24 hours, President Donald Trump promised Americans two separate rounds of government checks.

Neither has been authorized by Congress. Neither comes with an explanation of where the money would come from. Both of them, experts said, would do little to fix the problems they are ostensibly meant to solve.

On Wednesday evening, at the Republican Party’s midterm convention, Trump told the crowd that if Republicans hold the House and Senate, the federal government would send $5,000 to “every adult citizen” in the country. He likened it to a company distributing profits to its shareholders.

The White House followed with a release naming the payment the “Trump Dividend” and putting the partisan condition in writing. “The Trump Dividend depends on President Trump and Republicans,” it read. “Democrat control means America loses — and working people pay the price.”

On Thursday, in a video posted to the White House’s X account, Trump announced a second payment: Roughly one million Americans would receive $500 rebate checks to offset what he called “excessive fees” caused by the Biden administration’s handling of the Affordable Care Act.

Congress has not appropriated money for either payment, and neither Trump nor the White House has said how they would be funded.

“He would have to pass it through Congress,” said Daniel Weiner, a legal expert at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Just as any other benefit has to be passed. It has to be done from money appropriated and authorized by Congress.”

“He would have to pass it through Congress. Just as any other benefit has to be passed. It has to be done from money appropriated and authorized by Congress.”

Daniel Weiner, a legal expert at the Brennan Center for Justice

Asked by a CBS station in Texas whether he would need congressional approval, Trump said he did not think so.

“Well, we think not,” the president said. “I think they will do it if we needed it. But we think not.”

The Republicans who would have to pass it did not know it was coming. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., was not briefed or consulted before the announcement Wednesday night, a person familiar with the matter told MS NOW.

Some rallied to Trump’s side all the same.

Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, took to X soon after the president’s remarks, offering to lead a bill that would pass the $5,000 checks following the midterms.

“I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election … because Republicans (and America) will win!” he wrote.

Asked about the dividend, Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., gave a thumbs-up.

“Good idea!” she said.

The enthusiasm was not universal.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, showed frustration with the limited details on the proposal and criticized the motive behind Trump’s offer.

“Tax and spending decisions should be made based on the needs of the American people and the state of the economy. They should not appear to be tied to election results,” she said.

A House Republican, who was granted anonymity given the confusion on the matter, said colleagues were a bit nervous about the proposal — and were caught off guard by learning about it from the stage.

“I’m just a little surprised that it wasn’t floated out first,” they said. “We would’ve had a chance to weigh in on it and be prepared to be hit with it.” The House Republican went as far to say that they do not think it is a good idea.

“This is a promise that I can’t imagine there are very many people took seriously,” said a second House Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the president’s proposal. “The poor person that believes this is probably still walking out to their mailbox every day and looking for their ‘tariff rebate check.’”

No Congress would pass it, the lawmaker said, adding, “There is never going to be a majority big enough that can get this type of vote passed. It’s just not possible.”

“When I saw it, I just laughed,” they continued. “Like, this isn’t even serious anymore.”

The member predicted the move would fall short politically, saying, “It’s obvious that voters’ wallets are gonna play a big role in the upcoming election, and this is a very bad attempt at trying to win some of those votes.”

Republicans have spent the year building a case against Democrats as socialists, a theme that ran through nearly every speech in Dallas. Two rounds of direct government payments, one of them conditioned on an election result, complicate that argument.

“I do think that the rise of the Democratic socialists is a serious threat, and I think it is a legitimate campaign issue for Republicans,” Marc Short, former chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, told MS NOW’s “State of Play with Peter Alexander” on Thursday. “But we blur that distinction with the economic policies we’re promoting right now.”

Trump has made similar promises for the past year and a half, sometimes describing the payments as “DOGE dividends” or tariff dividends. Neither program raised anything close to enough money to cover the cost of $5,000 checks to 245 million Americans. No checks have been sent.

In an interview Wednesday evening on Fox, Vice President JD Vance said the money could come from tariff revenue.

“Those penalties have generated a lot of revenues,” he said. “They’ve helped us pay down debt.”

He then framed the offer as a transaction with voters.

“What the president is just saying is: If you keep it going to the American people, if you keep us in power and allow us to continue to do these things, then you’re going to share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that we’re creating in the United States of America,” Vance said.

The tariffs are not not producing that revenue. Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council told MS NOW that no money is currently coming in — the government is still refunding tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and will likely be doing so for the next six months to a year.

When revenue turns positive, Lipsky said, it is likely to run between $100 billion and $200 billion a year. The checks would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion.

There is also the question of who pays it in the first place.

“Tariff revenues are being applied in all kinds of ways, but we have to remember that tariffs are a tax,” Lipsky said. “So, essentially, people are paying, and now we are talking about a way they maybe get refunded for what they are paying.”

The White House has not addressed any of this. 

Asked by Fox News’ Laura Ingraham why the checks could not go out now — while Republicans are already in control of the House, Senate and presidency — Trump did not address the mechanics.

“Because the Democrats can’t do it,” the president said. “Because with them, it’s negative growth. With us, it’s so positive.”

Asked about the viability of issuing $5,000 checks to every adult citizen in America, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle touted what he said is the president’s ability to deliver results on his promises.

“President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong, drawing a clear contrast with the Democrats’ record of historic inflation, unfettered illegal immigration, skyrocketing crime, and weakness on the world stage,” he wrote. “With the continued support of the American people, President Trump will keep delivering real results.”

Economic policy expert Maya MacGuineas acknowledged that two things can be true at once. While people would be thrilled to get a $5,000 check in the mail, the economy could react poorly in the long run.

“You can see and touch the bonus, and that’s the fun part,” MacGuineas told MS NOW. “But the invisible weakening of our fiscal foundation has costs throughout and indefinitely.”

She said if the checks were sent out, it could drive interest rates and prices up, making the cost of living for Americans less affordable.

The $500 rebate is smaller, more specific and — according to the White House’s own fact sheet — far narrower than Thursday’s video suggested. The rebates would target those “most exposed to the higher costs imposed by the Biden Administration’s gross mismanagement of Obamacare,” about one million people out of an estimated 19.2 million ACA exchange plan enrollees. In the announcement video, Trump said the check could in some cases “cover the entire spike in your insurance.”

Most people will not get a check at all, said Larry Levitt, the executive vice president for health policy at KFF. For those who do, he said, $500 will not come close to covering the price hikes they are absorbing.

“It’s a shiny nickel when the healthcare costs people are facing are in dollars and thousands of dollars,” Levitt told MS NOW.

Vaughn Hillyard contributed to this report.

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