Top Republicans have stopped spending in a politically daunting North Carolina Senate race, but President Donald Trump is standing by his handpicked nominee, Michael Whatley, with a Tuesday visit he is hoping can turn out GOP voters.
The North Carolina trip, part of a seven-day, seven-state midterm blitz by the president comes as current MS NOW/FiftyPlusOne polling has the state’s former governor Roy Cooper leading Whatley by 10 points. Despite Whatley’s uphill battle, the president is standing by him, hoping to ignite Republicans with early voting now underway.
That support from the president, however, comes as the top Senate Republican super PAC paused future spending in North Carolina earlier this month and slashed ad spending, indicating a lack of confidence in the race.
The Senate Leadership Fund cut $13.2 million in ad spending on the North Carolina Senate race on Oct. 2, according to AdImpact, and “other smaller cuts have trickled in since,” totaling $14.6 million in cuts. That same day, Trump told reporters on the White House South Lawn that he hoped Whatley wins, but was “worried” about him. The North Carolina cut was accompanied by a seven-figure Republican ad buy in historically red Kansas.
Trump’s decision to stand by Whatley and campaign with him in the final midterm stretch despite the current state of the race and his party’s pullback is putting the president’s own political strength on the line.
The president, and his political team, do not believe North Carolina is entirely out of reach, but the trip is also designed to mitigate the scale of a loss, according to one current and one former White House official who are familiar with Trump’s midterm strategy.
“At the very least, you don’t want to handpick a guy in a swing state and then not work to help him,” said the current White House official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal midterm election strategy, as were others for this story. The official continued that for “reputation sake” it was advantageous for Trump to campaign for Whatley.
“The issue is turnout. [Trump’s team] feels like he can draw low-propensity voters out, which makes Whatley more competitive,” the former official said.
“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the president understands how to communicate with them,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said. “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” Ingle added.
Even as Republicans face a tough political landscape this fall with elevated inflation and the ongoing war with Iran, the president insists that his October rallies are turning the tide by energizing the party. But his ability to turn out the vote is being tested.
According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, 33% of American adults approve of the president, while 66% disapprove. According to the poll, Trump’s approval on the economy is at 28%.
“President Trump is barnstorming the country to tout Republicans’ historic wins and rally with voters who want Michael Whatley and [House candidate] Laurie Buckhout cutting taxes, slashing violent crime and putting North Carolina first,” said Republican National Committee spokesperson Emma Hall. “Unfortunately for the Democrats, they are stuck defending soft-on-crime hack Roy Cooper and do-nothing [Rep.] Don Davis,” she said.
Cooper, a well-known two-term governor of the state, has homed in on affordability messaging and made a central campaign promise to “make stuff cost less.”
Whatley has tried to catch up. His initial campaign messaging focused heavily on reducing crime and increasing public safety but has shifted in recent days with his own sharpened focus on affordability.
North Carolina is also home to one of Republicans’ more perilous redistricting gambits this cycle. The state’s GOP-led legislature last year targeted moderate Democrat Don Davis by reshaping his seat to make it more winnable, and friendly, to conservatives. To do that, Republicans made the nearby 3rd District, held by GOP congressman Greg Murphy, better for Democrats while still being decidedly Trump-friendly.
Despite the redraw meant to help Republicans keep control of the House and oust Davis, the incumbent is in a competitive position to potentially win re-election. And Murphy’s seat, where Trump’s Greenville rally is expected to be held, now has signs of vulnerability for the GOP.
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