With the results of Tuesday’s election, MS NOW views the Senate race in Alaska as a toss-up, opening another path for Democrats to retake the Senate majority. If the election were held today, the race between Democrat Mary Peltola and incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan would be a coin flip.

That puts Alaska alongside Maine, North Carolina and Ohio as Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this year. If Democrats flip all four while holding all their current seats — including Georgia and Michigan — they would win 51 seats and regain control of the chamber.

So why do we view Alaska — a state President Donald Trump won by double digits two years ago — as a pure toss-up?

First, it’s not 2024 anymore. Views of Trump have soured significantly over the past year and a half, including among Americans who backed him. That dissatisfaction is evident in Alaska, where voters are divided over his job performance and deeply concerned about affordability — the same conditions making things harder for Republican candidates across the country. And both the primaries and polling this year have seen an angry, energized Democratic base.

Second, Peltola has flipped the state before. In 2022, she won a special election and became the first Alaska native member of congress, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin, the former governor and vice presidential nominee, and Nick Begich III in the state’s ranked choice voting debut. Developing a moderate brand in the independent minded state, she went on to win re-election that November, defeating the same candidates in a subsequent ranked choice vote. She was defeated in 2024 by Begich in what became more of a head-to-head race. Peltola has also demonstrated fundraising prowess: The “fish, family, freedom” candidate has raised significantly more money than Sullivan, the sitting senator.

Third, recent polling of Alaska indicates a very competitive race. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted before the primary showed Sullivan leading by within the margin of error — but did not account for ranked choice voting. A Data for Progress poll of a  four-candidate field led by Peltola and Sullivan found Peltola coming out on top in a ranked choice vote simulation. Alaska is a challenging state to poll, and there isn’t a ton of data at the moment, but what we have seen is consistent with a toss-up.

Finally, Alaska’s primary results suggest a very competitive contest. This was an all-party primary in which all registered voters use the same ballot, choosing among 16 candidates. The top four advance to the general election, regardless of their party. Sixteen candidates ran; Peltola and the incumbent Sullivan advanced easily, with Peltola taking slightly more votes. Democratic and Republican candidates drew roughly the same combined share. While those aggregate vote shares are not predictive of the general election result, they suggest a roughly divided electorate.

Then there is the rest of the field. One of them is a second Daniel Sullivan — no relation — who is running as a conservative and could siphon away votes from the incumbent Sullivan, either due to voter confusion or genuine preference. And while Republicans may rank their Republican senator ahead of Peltola as their second choice, it turns out that many voters do not rank all four candidates in practice. It’s even possible that some voters turned off by ranked choice voting only rank one candidate. That means many ballots are “exhausted” rather than reallocated to a second choice. We saw this in Peltola’s 2024 race, when there was another Democrat on the ballot: Only a third of that candidate’s voters ranked Peltola second, because just as many ballots were exhausted. If that kind of pattern emerges in a close race this year, Sullivan might not gain enough second-choice votes to get to a majority.

Alaska’s unique system is challenging to game out precisely, and it could produce any number of scenarios. The important point for now is that it introduces even more uncertainty into a race that all signs point to being very competitive. Don’t be surprised if Senate control ends up being decided by ranked choice voting in Alaska, rather than voters in the “lower 48” this November.

Note: Our race ratings are informed by polling data, reporting about the campaigns, recent electoral trends and primary results. They reflect our current thinking, as if the elections were being held today, and will be updated regularly until Election Day.

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