Since the dust settled on the Texas primaries — including a late May runoff — the Senate race there has looked competitive. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton have been close in the polls, but Texas’ recent electoral history led us to give the GOP the edge for most of the summer, even with Paxton being a weaker nominee than the incumbent he ousted in the primary with President Donald Trump’s help, Sen. John Cornyn.

Now, as Labor Day marks the unofficial start of campaign season, it’s clear that Texas has become a top-tier battleground. A worsening political environment for Republicans, confirmatory polling data and an emerging fundraising picture are impossible to ignore. Texas is truly a toss-up.

The polling

A series of recent polls confirms that vote preferences are evenly divided between Talarico and Paxton now. The two tend to be within a few points of each other in public polls. More often than not, Talarico has a small lead, but within the margin of error.

Skeptics will note that Democrats thought Texas was in reach once before, in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 3 points. But it’s notable that Talarico is polling better than O’Rourke was at this stage. Moreover, there is a Libertarian Party candidate on the ballot again, which gives disaffected Republicans a non-Democratic option if they can’t stomach voting for Paxton. That also means a candidate could theoretically win without claiming an outright majority.

The polls also suggest a tough issue landscape for Republicans up and down the ballot, with economic concerns displacing the border as the most salient issues for voters. Many Texans simply feel that they can’t get ahead, a sense compounded by high gas and grocery prices. Voters are also clearly concerned about ethics issues, and a majority call Paxton corrupt. A Fox News poll a month ago found more concern that Paxton lacks the character to serve in the Senate than concern about Talarico being too extreme. And another recent poll finds that most voters disapprove of how the state leadership is handling political corruption.

Polls also consistently show an enthusiasm gap, with Democrats likelier to vote this fall than Republicans. Differential turnout — that is, Kamala Harris voters turning out at higher rates than Trump voters — could shift the electorate to the left by a few points, relative to recent elections.

On top of that, Talarico is posting impressive numbers with Latino voters and independents. While Trump carried Texas Latinos by 10 points, according to 2024 exit polls, that margin looks like it has flipped, with Talarico often ahead by about 20 points or more. And while independents split evenly in 2024, Talarico may need to win them by double digits to be victorious.

The primary

Polling data isn’t the only evidence of an enthusiasm gap and a shift among Latinos; the primary had signs of each. For the first time in a midterm cycle since 2002, Democratic primary votes outnumbered Republican ones. The hard-fought Democratic primary campaign clearly generated real interest, and turnout modeling suggests the vast majority of those primary voters will turn out again in the general.

A precinct-by-precinct look at the results shows why that matters. Turnout rose most in Latino precincts. Roughly 3 in 4 Latino voters chose the Democratic primary over the Republican one. All of this helped Talarico, who did better in places with more Latino voters.

A Latino shift was also evident in February’s special election in Texas’s 9th state senate district, which includes much of Fort Worth. The district swung more than 30 points and flipped to Democrats, with heavily Latino parts shifting even more. While primaries and special elections bring out a different electorate than a general election, when these indicators all point in the same direction as the polling, they’re harder to dismiss.

The money

The candidates’ own accounts tell a lopsided story. When it comes to the money each candidate has raised for their own campaign committee, we compare the cash-on-hand numbers from their latest Federal Elections Commission reports. That only gives us the picture through the end of June, which had Paxton with about $1.8 million on hand versus Talarico’s $21.5 million. Talarico has been spending some of that money to get on the air with ads in an expensive state with multiple metropolitan areas and media markets.

But the fact that Talarico has used money to run ads throughout the summer and, according to the Texas Tribune, “is going up with his first negative television ad of the U.S. Senate race” at the beginning of this critical stretch is a clue. Another clue is that while at least one outside group has recently started running ads aimed at boosting Paxton and making Talarico look cozy with foreign interests, no general election ads have dropped directly from Paxton’s campaign. Paxton said in a Fox News interview on Sunday that his own ads are coming.

What Paxton does have on his side are well-funded allies: outside groups like the Trump-affiliated MAGA Inc. super PAC and America PAC, the group connected to Elon Musk. Both should be aligned with Paxton and are sitting on a boatload of cash that could flood the airwaves in Texas. “I know that they are going to be a part of this,” Paxton said of such groups during his Fox News interview. “We can’t coordinate on how much or what. It’s coming.”

If ads from those groups start to drop, that will factor into the future ratings. For now, because Paxton is still waiting for that money, we are factoring this lack of messaging to the voters of Texas into our current analysis.

What else might change

Texas remains a heavily Republican state in terms of its electorate’s baseline partisanship. Talarico’s path to victory depends on his ability to drive up Democratic turnout, decisively win Latinos and independents and, relatedly, persuade some Trump voters to move to the Democrat this time. While the polling suggests that’s all doable, it’s by no means a guarantee.

In fact, there are clues in the current polling data that Paxton has a bit of room to grow in support. Republicans tend to have higher proportions of undecided voters than Democrats do, and as the campaign heats up, partisans typically coalesce behind their nominee. That’s one way the small polling leads Talarico currently enjoys could evaporate.

And Texans by and large still view the Democratic Party less favorably than the GOP. A big  question is the extent to which voters will distinguish the Senate candidates from party brands. Negative partisanship is a strong force, and at the end of the day, Republican-leaning voters may decide that Paxton, flawed though he may be, is the lesser of two evils. After all, despite his well-known ethical issues and election denialism, he has managed to win statewide three times already. (That said, his vote share trailed Gov. Greg Abbott’s in 2018 and 2022, and that was before Paxton was impeached for abuse of power by the Texas House of Representatives.)

Texas has remained a solidly red state in the Trump era, and in fact hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years. If we see indications this fall that Paxton is on track to keep that streak alive, we will revisit our race rating. We’ll do the same if Talarico looks in a stronger position to break it.

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From MS Now.