NEW YORK, US – NOV. 02, 2024: People walk the street in Chinatown, New York City on November 1, 2024. (Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images) 
It’s no secret that more and more professionals are growing anxious over AI. Reports continue to emerge about the technology threatening white-collar work. But the truth is, it’s hard to predict what’ll actually happen.
That’s what led Anthropic, known for its AI chatbot named Claude, to do some research and come up with a new way of looking at how AI might or might not threaten various professions. “The rapid diffusion of AI is generating a wave of research measuring and forecasting its impacts on labor markets. But the track record of past approaches gives reason for humility,” the new Anthropic report cautioned.
Researchers at Anthropic looked deeper into AI displacement risk and based their new framework off of “observed exposure,” which looks at the theoretical abilities of large language models (LLMs) like Claude and usage data based on real-world cases. Though AI is certain to have some effects on the labor market, many of those said effects are, for now, uncertain. The “observed exposure” lens is best to consider “when the effects [of AI] are ambiguous” and to “help identify the most vulnerable jobs before displacement” occurs.
In general, AI capabilities are generally skewed towards management, office, legal, and computer work (among others listed in the study) because this is where AI chatbots can aid the most and help make job tasks more efficient. However, at present, actually observed AI usage in these areas lags far behind the theoretical potential. “As capabilities advance, adoption spreads, and deployment deepens,” actual usage will inch closer to theoretical potential, the report continues.
The top five most exposed-to-AI jobs are, according to Anthropic, in order, computer programmers, customer service reps, data entry keyers, medical record specialists, and market research analysts. Those who are least exposed have work that revolves around the physical, like cooks, motorcycle mechanics, lifeguards, bartenders, and dishwashers. Thus, researchers are aware of a possible “Great Recession for white-collar workers.”
“Jobs are more exposed to AI to the extent that their tasks are theoretically feasible with LLMs and observed on our platforms in automated, work-related use cases,” the report said. “Using survey data from the US, we find no impact on unemployment rates for workers in the most exposed occupations, although there’s tentative evidence that hiring into those professions has slowed slightly for workers aged 22 to 25.” It’s true that youth unemployment is unusually high.
Workers today may see a totally flipped version of a trend that defined work of a previous generation. In the industrial revolution, much manual work was automated, making jobs that required more skills and education more promising for secure employment. Only time will reveal if this generation sees that reversed: where manual jobs become the safer choice, compared to office work.
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Author: Kimberly Wilson
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