COLUMBIA, S.C. — Sen. Darline Graham has a critical mission when she takes the debate stage Sunday night: Save face and calm Republican nerves.

Graham, the GOP political novice, and Annie Andrews, the Democratic pediatrician, are set to square off in the first and only debate of South Carolina’s Senate race — an unexpectedly competitive contest in the ruby-red Palmetto State.

For Graham, the debate is treacherous terrain — but a crucial opportunity. During a primary debate in August, the South Carolina Republican conceded that she’s “not that informed on national security,” sparking a viral moment and raising serious concerns about her qualifications for the full six-year Senate term.

Since then, she eked out a primary victory over Rep. Ralph Norman and is now running neck-and-neck against Andrews, polls show. National Republicans are growing nervous, sending in big names and money in the final stretch of midterm campaigning in hopes of nudging Graham over the finish line.

The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1998.

During a campaign stop in Charleston on Friday alongside Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. Tim Scott Scott, R-S.C., the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm, Graham sounded convinced yet clear-eyed.

“It is going to be a close race, but I feel confident that we’re going to win,” Graham said.

“We’re going to hold the Republican seat here in South Carolina,” she told reporters. “That is so important.”

Sunday night’s debate — which comes exactly three months after the passing of Darline Graham’s brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham — will be a key inflection point in the race, as the GOP candidate returns to the debate stage to redeem herself from this summer’s blunder. Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener will also participate in the debate.

And while Graham may be confident in the race, recent moves show that top Republicans are downright jittery.

In perhaps the most telling sign, Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Thune, is funneling $5 million into the race as “an insurance policy,” Axios first reported. 

It came after President Donald Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., poured more than $800,000 into the race for Graham, Trump’s hand-picked candidate, during the primary.

Beyond the money, Trump is likely to return to South Carolina ahead of Election Day, a source familiar with the matter told MS NOW, after he rallied with Graham in Myrtle Beach during the primary.

The visit, however, would come as his star power in the state has come into question: After Trump carried South Carolina by more than 17 percentage points in 2024, Graham won the special primary runoff by less than 5 percentage points, with nearly half of the state backing Norman.

The president is infusing his signature rhetoric into the race. In a Truth Social post last week, Trump referred to Andrews as “Annie ‘Trannie’ Andrews,” evoking an anti-transgender slur to refer to the Democratic candidate as Republicans lean in on that issue, as they did in 2024.

Andrews responded with a direct-to-camera video, fact-checking Trump’s claims without mentioning his name. “Politics can get pretty ugly, and when it does, you deserve to hear the truth,” Andrews said.

“I want you to hear me loud and clear: I don’t support biological men playing women’s sports, and I don’t support and haven’t ever performed gender surgery for minors,” she added.

Trump and Thune aren’t the only high-profile Republicans making their way to the Palmetto State amid the heated race. 

In a move that raised eyebrows, Attorney General Todd Blanche on Thursday — days before the debate — hosted a roundtable with Graham and others in Charleston to discuss efforts to reduce crime. When asked why he decided to visit Charleston now, on the cusp of high-stakes elections that will determine which party controls Congress, he didn’t have an answer.

“That’s a great question, I don’t know,” Blanche said. “Why I’m here as opposed to, I suppose somewhere else in South Carolina, I don’t know.”

The collective GOP freakout is not unfounded.

Recent polls show Graham barely leading Andrews. Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster, released a survey in September showing Graham ahead of Andrews by one percentage point, 46% to 45%, with 4% of voters still undecided. Around the same time, the Cook Political Report shifted South Carolina’s Senate race towards Democrats, changing the label from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

MS NOW currently rates the race as a likely Republican win.

Sunday night’s debate comes less than three months after Graham was sworn into Congress, the latest stop on the roller-coaster ride that has been her journey in politics.

Graham had never served in elected office until South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to finish her brother’s term at Trump’s urging. The president then publicly encouraged Graham to enter the race to run for the full six-year term, which she did, beating a crowded field of Republicans in a competitive primary to land her in a tight general election.

In her three months in Washington, Graham has had trouble defining the kind of politician she wants to be, offering amorphous policy positions and struggling to answer policy questions.

During campaign stops she has touted conservative positions like fighting socialism but hasn’t offered specifics. She insists she’s more conservative than her brother, voicing support for abolishing the filibuster and saying she’d go farther than the late senator on immigration. And on national security — which was her brother’s key focus on Capitol Hill — she struggled to field a question about Taiwan.

Some voters in South Carolina are still weighing their support.

Juan Roberts, a 36-year-old IHOP employee from Columbia, told MS NOW he was leaning toward supporting Graham, even though her debate performance last month prompted “high-alert concern.” When asked if she has enough experience, he pointed to the Graham name.

“We see who she’s related to, Mr. Lindsey Graham, so there’s a lot of experience in there,” he said. “She’s seen the ups and downs, the good, the bad and the ugly.”

Rhonda, a 65-year-old retiree from Columbia, said she’s “probably” voting for Graham, but not because of her credentials — because she wants a GOP Senate majority to support the Trump administration’s efforts in South America.

She told MS NOW she didn’t see last month’s debate performance, but brushed off Graham’s gaffe when told about it.

“I think she was being honest,” she said.

Graham’s biggest challenge, perhaps, at this juncture may be whether she can unite South Carolina Republicans after a devastating death and painful primary.

Norman — who drew Trump’s ire in 2023 after he endorsed Nikki Haley for president — told MS NOW Trump’s endorsement and heavy campaigning for Graham during the primary is “backfiring on him.”

While he threw his support behind Graham following his primary loss, Norman said he has no plans to campaign with her. And what appears to be a small write-in campaign for Norman is underway, though the congressman said he isn’t involved.

Reading the tea leaves, Norman said Graham faces an uphill battle.

“I assume she’ll call Trump back in, and I assume she’ll get all the people in South Carolina who sided with her to campaign with her,” he added. “I think she’s having a tough time.”

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