If history is any guide, Democrats have the advantage in the fall midterm elections.

In recent decades, the president’s party has almost always lost congressional seats, especially in a second term. Republicans are now facing additional headwinds from President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings and concerns about inflation.

But with four months until Election Day, it’s still too early to tell how favorable the environment will be for Democrats. A narrow House majority is one possibility, while a broader wave could also bring the Senate into play.

Most voters don’t begin paying close attention until after Labor Day, and major events can quickly reshape the political landscape. A sudden economic shift, an international crisis or scandal could all change the trajectory of the race. Already this week, allegations of sexual assault have roiled a key Senate race.

Another development has the potential to reshape the landscape: the Supreme Court ruling that political parties may coordinate more closely with candidates on campaign spending. The decision is expected to help both parties assert more control over the elections, but how that will affect individual races remains to be seen.

Still, many of the challenges facing Republicans are unlikely to disappear before November. Trump remains a polarizing figure, Congress has barely passed any major laws to brag about and there is little evidence that inflation or consumer prices will improve dramatically before voters cast their ballots. Even if Trump ends the war with Iran, helping steady oil markets, experts say it will take time for prices to drop to their prewar level.

Here’s where the races stand today, including Senate race rankings from MS NOW’s elections team.

The House: Democrats have the upper hand

Winning back the House is Democrats’ top objective. Control of the chamber would allow them to block most Republican legislation, conduct oversight hearings, issue subpoenas and investigate the Trump administration.

Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority, meaning Democrats need only a handful of wins to reclaim the speaker’s gavel.

Because of political polarization and aggressive redistricting in many states, there are only about three dozen genuinely competitive House districts nationwide. That means control of the chamber will likely be decided in a relatively small number of suburban swing districts in states such as New York, California, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Nebraska.

Most recent polls show Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot by at least five points, which would mean a net gain of anywhere from 8 to 18 seats — more than enough to win control. But a recent Emerson College poll put Democrats with a 10-point lead among likely voters, which would mean they could pick up 15 to 25 seats for a more robust majority.

The bottom line: Democrats are in a much better position than the GOP, but it remains to be seen how big of a majority they could get.

The Senate: Democrats are close

For Democrats, control of the Senate as well would mean the ability to pass legislation through both chambers and slow or even block the confirmation of judicial nominees and executive branch appointments for the rest of Trump’s term.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage. To win control, Democrats must first defend their own vulnerable seats by re-electing Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia while holding open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Then they must flip four Republican-held seats.

Race ratings from MS NOW’s elections team currently give Democrats an edge in three key contests — North Carolina, Georgia and New Hampshire — all of which are rated Lean Democratic. If those ratings hold, Democrats would still need to win at least two more states from the following list:

• Michigan: Rep. Haley Stevens and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed are running for the Democratic nomination to face presumptive Republican nominee Mike Rogers. Toss Up.
• Maine: Graham Platner is facing incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But Democratic support for Platner has dropped amid allegations of sexual assault, on top of other controversies. Toss Up.
• Ohio: Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill JD Vance’s seat after he was elected vice president, is facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown. Toss Up.
• Alaska: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola will likely be among the top four candidates to advance after the state’s nonpartisan primary. Leans Republican.
• Texas: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Leans Republican.
• Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson is facing Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for an open seat in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 2008. Leans Republican.

Unlike the House, where races tend to move in tandem, Senate races are much more dependent on the quality of individual candidates and the political dynamics within each state.

The bottom line: Democrats have a plausible path to a Senate majority, but virtually every competitive race remains unsettled. 

This is a preview of MS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now.

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From MS Now.