DETROIT — Mike Rogers needs to show some independence from President Donald Trump without alienating Trump’s voters. Abdul El-Sayed needs to bring moderates into the fold without losing the progressives who powered his campaign.
Both will be tested Thursday night, when the former Republican congressman and the former Democratic public health official meet for the first debate of Michigan’s marquee Senate race.
For Rogers, that means navigating a Trump-sized minefield: tariffs, the war with Iran and the president’s penchant for questioning the integrity of elections.
For El-Sayed, it’s the riddle of how to unite the Democratic Party without alienating restive progressives or anxious moderates, a puzzle that has proved difficult — especially in a state that is still reeling from the 2024 “Uncommitted” movement.
Thursday’s debate, the first of two, comes 26 days before Election Day and marks the unofficial start of the campaign’s final stretch. Recent polls show El-Sayed and Rogers neck and neck in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., one of the most competitive contests of the cycle.
Michiganders say the race has all the trappings to make Thursday’s debate a must-see showdown.
“We haven’t had a good, strong Republican have a chance in years, since Spence Abraham here in Michigan. Trump won this in ‘24. And you have the rise of their socialism cult, the insurgent Democratic Party,” a Michigan GOP official told MS NOW, requesting anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “I think a lot of people are gonna be watching.”
Both candidates head into the debate feeling the squeeze.
Rogers’ balancing act was on full display Wednesday, when his campaign released an ad calling for an end to the U.S. tariff war with Canada. In the 30-second spot, filmed in a bar in Macomb County, Rogers drinks a Labatt Blue, a Canadian beer popular in Michigan.
“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war — now,” Rogers says. “As Michigan’s senator, I’ll bring both parties together to lower your prices. That’s job number one.”
The spot follows Trump’s decision in July to impose a 50% tariff on some Canadian imports, which prompted Canada to retaliate with tariffs of its own. The trade fight has hit Michigan’s auto industry especially hard.
It also marks a shift for Rogers. In August, he wrote in a statement, “President Trump is right to put America First — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution.”
The ad quickly reverberated in Lansing and Washington.
Shortly after Rogers posted the spot on X, El-Sayed said his GOP opponent wasn’t “a serious person,” arguing that he only shifted his position because of lagging data.
“You cheerled this tariff war from the beginning and you’re flip-flopping now because your poll numbers are in free fall,” El-Sayed wrote on X.
Asked about the ad in the Oval Office, Trump brushed it aside.
“I viewed him as saying that he thinks Canada should make a deal,” he told reporters.
It wasn’t Rogers’ first time changing position on Trump-related issues. In a video posted last month, Rogers — filmed while buying groceries in a supermarket — decried rising costs in Michigan, declaring “the war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.” He never mentioned Trump’s name, but the spot was viewed as a veiled swipe at the president, who has repeatedly defended the conflict.
On other issues, Rogers has stuck close to Trump. Over the summer, Rogers — the former chair of the powerful House Intelligence Committee — applauded Trump’s July speech on election integrity, writing on X that he was “thankful for President Trump’s commitment to transparency.” And after his own loss in 2024, Rogers suggested his defeat was because a “van showed up in Detroit with ballots.”
Both comments came after Rogers, in the aftermath of the 2020 election, strongly condemned Trump’s attempts to undermine the results.
Rogers’ maneuvering reflects Michigan’s tricky terrain. Trump’s approval rating in the state is underwater — just 41% last month, according to a Marist poll — but Michigan remains true purple territory. And Rogers has a history of running behind the president: In 2024, Trump carried the state by 1.4 percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, now a senator, by 0.34 percentage points — roughly 19,000 votes.
The Republican official cast Rogers’ breaks with Trump as a matter of candor.
“You’ll see Mike Rogers be honest,” the official said, “like he went against Trump on the tariffs with Canada.”
“The biggest mistake that politicians make is they have to agree 100%,” the person added. “You don’t have to agree 100% because everybody’s district and everybody’s state, in this case, is different.”
Thursday night’s debate, meanwhile, will be another chance for El-Sayed, a progressive, to try and unite the Democratic Party after his bruising primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, who was running as the moderate alternative.
El-Sayed will almost certainly field questions on a number of topics that have divided the party, including his previous calls to defund the police, his labeling of the situation in Gaza a “genocide” and his connections to left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has drawn controversy for his comments about Israel, Hamas and communism.
The Gaza issue and his association with Piker have been particular lightning rods as El-Sayed tries to court Jewish voters who backed Stevens in the primary.
To unify the party, El-Sayed has brought in the big guns. Slotkin, who didn’t endorse in the primary, appeared with him at a rally over the weekend. Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned with him last month, and former President Barack Obama is scheduled to rally with him later this month.
But it’s a delicate balance. While El-Sayed is working to include moderates in his coalition, he risks turning off the progressive supporters who make up the foundation of his campaign.
Hebah Ghafoor, a 25-year-old marketing professional from Dearborn, said she is voting for El-Sayed because of his left-leaning credentials.
“I feel like he is more for the people,” Ghafoor said. “Democratic socialism is kind of what I’m leaning towards versus Republicans who haven’t done us the best in this last presidential election.”
Alore, a 28-year-old production manager from St. Johns who declined to give her surname, said she was drawn to El-Sayed’s message and to seeing him on the ground.
“I like that he’s in the community, I’ve met him several times,” she said. “Medicare for all, money out of politics — that’s all verbiage that I agree with.”
The president himself may soon weigh in on the race in person. After appearing at a rally with Rogers in July, Trump told reporters this week, “I’m going to Michigan in about a week and a half,” without offering specifics. As of Thursday, neither the White House nor the Rogers campaign had announced any plans.
El-Sayed, for his part, is leaning in.
“Donald, welcome to Michigan,” El-Sayed said during an interview on MS NOW this week. “I dare you to come.”
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