Ahead of the midterm elections, there were normal and non-hysterical Republican talking points about the polls showing Democrats poised for big wins. It was not uncommon, for example, to hear assorted GOP officials make the case that the survey data undercounted GOP voters who were less likely to respond to pollsters’ outreach. Others in the party clung to an old political chestnut: “The only polls that matter are the election results.”

But then there were the abnormal Republican talking points.

In late August, for example, Donald Trump published a conspiracy theory that was bizarre even for him, insisting that the national surveys conducted by major independent news organizations, universities and research institutions were secretly being coordinated by Democrats as part of a fiendish plot to discourage GOP voters. The president’s nonsense, published to his social media platform, added, “They’re called, ‘Demoralization Operations’” — a phrase he apparently made up.

A week ago, just four days before Election Day, the president kept going down the same conspiratorial path, telling the New York Post’s Miranda Devine that he believed “pollsters don’t even send polls out.” According to Trump’s version of events, polling professionals simply “sit back behind a desk” and concoct results, without actually conducting surveys.

This was, of course, quite bonkers, but he wasn’t alone. In mid-October, House Speaker Mike Johnson argued that independent news organizations were secretly conspiring with independent polling firms to release deceptive survey data as part of a nefarious plot to “discourage” GOP voters. (The Louisiana Republican did not appear to be kidding.)

As recently as Sunday, two days before the midterm elections, Congress’ top Republican lawmaker spoke at a rally in Iowa, where he told attendees that major media organizations are “corrupt” and deliberately relying on “fake” polls to create a “narrative.”

The conspiracy theories were preposterous at the time. Now they look even worse.

Veteran Pew Research Center pollster Scott Keeter spoke to The Washington Post about how the industry fared, and his assessment rang true:

Our early observations are that the pre-election polls did a good job telling the story of the electorate’s mood this year: deep dissatisfaction with the president — particularly his economic policies, including among some of his 2024 voters. Polls also consistently identified a wide “enthusiasm gap,” with Democratic supporters more interested, engaged and likely to show up than Republican supporters.

It appears that pre-election polls did understate Democratic support in many of the major statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate, though poll watchers are still assessing the magnitude of the phenomenon.

That second point about the polls understating Democratic support in key races stands out as especially notable.

As part of MS NOW’s election coverage, the network partnered with FiftyPlusOne, and reviewing its pre-election polling averages, there’s an unmistakable pattern: In most of the key contests, the polls were correct about who would win, but Democratic candidates ended up winning by even larger margins than anticipated.

The underlying point of the Republican conspiracy theories turned reality on its head: Not only was there no secret plot, but the available polling data ended up telling the public that important races were more competitive than they actually were.

One of the more common refrains in Democratic circles in the run-up to Tuesday’s contests was skepticism about the polls’ reliability. As the dust settles on the cycle, the polls weren’t perfect, but they injected a fresh round of credibility into the industry, while discrediting the absurdities peddled by the nation’s most powerful GOP officials.

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