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It may be hours before it’s clear who’s winning on Tuesday, but there will be some early clues.

In the House of Representatives, a majority requires 218 seats. Democrats held 215 seats after the 2024 election, so they need a net gain of three to take the speaker’s gavel.

With House races across the country, early results may offer clues about whether Democrats are gaining ground by enough to take back the chamber. (Here’s a closer look at how MS NOW will make a projection on the House majority.)

The Senate is tougher. Republicans begin with a 53–47 majority, counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats. Because Vice President JD Vance can break a tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a 51–49 majority.

Democrats also have seats to defend, including in competitive races in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Assuming they hold those and their other seats, they then need to flip four Republican-held seats. North Carolina is their clearest pickup opportunity, followed by Ohio. Still, they would need two more wins among other competitive races, including in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.

Polls in those states close at different times, so it may take a while to see how the Senate majority is shaking out.

Below, an hour-by-hour look at what to watch on Election Night.

5 p.m.

The Voter Poll’s first findings become available at 5 p.m. ET. Candidate-choice details and additional state and national findings will be released after polls close and throughout the night.

6 p.m.

Polls close in the Eastern-time precincts of Indiana and Kentucky. Their Central-time precincts remain open until 7 p.m. ET.

One early House race to watch is Kentucky’s open 6th District, where Democrat Zach Dembo faces Republican Ralph Alvarado.

7 p.m.

Georgia and South Carolina polls close. Polls in Florida’s Eastern time zone close, but the state’s Central time zone polls remain open for another hour.

Georgia is probably Democrats’ safest must-hold among their vulnerable Senate seats and a necessary part of their path to a majority. Sen. Jon Ossoff has led most recent polls, and MS NOW rates his race against Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins as lean Democratic. But Georgia remains competitive: Trump carried the state by about 2 points in 2024, making Ossoff the only Democratic senator up for re-election in a state Trump won.

The state also has a competitive governor’s race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who was on Joe Biden’s vice presidential short list, and Republican billionaire Rick Jackson, who beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in the primary.

In South Carolina, MS NOW rates the race between Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat held by her late brother, Lindsey, and Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews as likely Republican. Polls show an unexpectedly competitive race in the reliably Republican state, which Graham didn’t help by struggling to answer a national security question at a debate.

The Voter Poll will begin releasing post-close findings for these states, adding detail about voters’ views on the issues that mattered to them and who turned out.

7:30 p.m.

Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

Democrats will now get their first sense of whether a Senate majority is within reach, as North Carolina and Ohio are two of the Republican-held seats they need to flip.

• North Carolina: Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair. MS NOW rates the race lean Democratic.
• Ohio: Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a race that MS NOW rates a toss-up.

Ohio’s gubernatorial race is close, with Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director, facing Republican venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy in a race rocked by his last-minute negative ad featuring her estranged mother.

8 p.m.

Polls close in Maine, Mississippi and New Hampshire, as well as in Florida’s Central time zone.

Several key Senate races will also start returning results:

• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in one of the night’s most closely watched races, which MS NOW rates a toss-up.
• New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faces former Republican Sen. John Sununu, a race MS NOW rates as lean Democratic.
• Mississippi: Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democrat Scott Colom. MS NOW rates the race as likely Republican.
• Florida: Republican Sen. Ashley Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon in a race rated by MS NOW as likely Republican.

New Hampshire is a Democratic-held seat, so a win there would protect the party’s position but would not add a pickup. Maine is one of the Republican-held seats Democrats need to flip. If Democrats don’t win Maine, they still have a path to a majority, but they would need to win more of the other, tougher Republican-held contests.

Florida’s new congressional map reshaped four districts as part of a broader mid-decade redistricting fight launched by President Donald Trump aimed at improving Republican prospects.

Polls closed in those key districts at 7 p.m. but the state will not release preliminary results until 8 p.m., when its remaining polling places close.

The races to watch:

• In the 9th District, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto faces former Trump administration Pentagon official Dan Green.
• In the 14th, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor faces Republican Mike Beltran, a former state representative.
• In the open 22nd District, Democrat Pia Dandiya, a teacher and former high school principal, faces Republican Casey Askar, a Marine veteran and businessman.
• In the 25th, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer, the former mayor of Boca Raton.

Also, in the Florida governor’s race, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly.

8:30 p.m.

Arkansas polls close. The state’s Senate race is not considered competitive, but watch the House race in the 2nd District, where Democrat Chris Jones faces Republican Rep. French Hill. A narrower-than-usual Republican margin could be an early sign of a broader shift.

9 p.m.

Polls close in Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Texas and several other states.

This is a major hour for Senate races that could decide control of the chamber:

• Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in a race MS NOW rates as a toss-up.
• Texas: Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in another race rated by MS NOW as a toss-up.
• Minnesota: Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan faces Republican Michele Tafoya for an open seat in a race rated by MS NOW as lean Democratic.
• Iowa: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a closer-than-expected race that MS NOW rates as lean Republican.
• Kansas: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a race MS NOW rates as lean Republican.
• Nebraska: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in a race rated likely Republican by MS NOW.

Michigan is a Democratic-held open seat, so a Democratic win there would be a much-needed hold. Iowa, Kansas and Texas are traditionally Republican states where Democrats could pick up one of the four seats they need to gain for Senate control.

Two governor’s races are worth watching this hour, too. In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while in Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs faces Republican Rep. Andy Biggs.

The broader House picture should also be taking shape. If Democrats are competitive in Republican-leaning districts across several states — not just in the seats redrawn to help the GOP — that points to a larger wave. If they’re winning mainly in their strongest targets and falling short in the tougher districts, the wave may be smaller than expected.

Watch for more state-level findings from The Voter Poll as polls close across the Midwest and Texas.

10 p.m.

Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah, along with some precincts in Idaho and Oregon.

In Montana’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper, faces Republican Aaron Flint, a combat veteran.

Nevada’s governor’s race is a toss-up between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.

11 p.m.

Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.

California’s House races will offer a test of whether Democrats’ counter-redistricting effort is helping them. Approved by voters through Proposition 50 in 2025, the new map could put as many as five Republican-held seats in play.

• In the 22nd District, Republican Rep. David Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas in a toss-up race in the Central Valley. It’s one of the clearest tests of whether Democrats can turn the new map into a pickup opportunity.
• In the 40th District, Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are running against each other after the map placed them in the same district. One Republican incumbent is certain to lose, but the seat will remain Republican-held.
• In the open 48th District, Democrat Marni von Wilpert faces Republican Jim Desmond in a competitive race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. A Democratic win would be another potential pickup under the new map.

California’s Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on certain assets held by qualifying billionaires, with 90% of the revenue going to healthcare. Washington’s Initiative 645 would repeal a newly enacted 9.9% tax on annual income above $1 million, set to take effect in 2028. The two ballot measures will be a key electoral test of how voters feel about taxes aimed at the wealthy.

Also this hour, Oregon’s governor’s race is closer than expected, with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek facing Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan.

12 a.m.

Hawaii polls close. Alaska’s polls are also closing across much of the state; the remaining Aleutian Islands precincts close later.

1 a.m.

The last Alaska polls close.

The Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola is a toss-up. A substantial first-round lead would be a strong sign: One analysis of 522 single-winner ranked-choice elections found that the first-choice leader won 96% of the time. But a close lead could change as voters’ next-ranked choices are counted. Alaska’s official ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, after the state’s absentee-ballot period.

The ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a nonpartisan candidate whose name resembles the incumbent’s. Republicans have argued that his candidacy could confuse voters. The New York Times reported that Peltola campaign staff and Democratic operatives worked to recruit him as part of a broader effort to draw votes away from the incumbent. Peltola has denied knowing about or participating in that effort. If Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is eliminated, his votes will transfer to the next-ranked candidate on each ballot, if the voter ranked another candidate.

The Justice Department already sued to block certification if Sen. Sullivan loses; a federal judge dismissed the case on Nov. 1, and DOJ filed a notice of appeal. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has separately ordered an investigation and said certification could be affected if it finds wrongdoing.

The governor’s race is competitive, too: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces a field of Republicans.

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