This is the Oct. 28, 2026, edition of “The Tea, Spilled by Morning Joe” newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered straight to your inbox Monday through Friday.

“You can even come to Mar-a-Lago … The problem is that for $5,000, the most you’ll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I’m not even sure you could buy that.”

— President Donald Trump joking at a political rally in Texas yesterday that U.S. adults could not afford to eat at his Florida estate

One week. That’s all that stands between James Talarico and one of the biggest political upsets in modern Texas history.

As he barnstorms the Lone Star State in the final stretch, the political athlete is clinging to a narrow lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton. MS NOW’s data polling partner FiftyPlusOne found Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 46.2%, and a Fox News poll put him ahead, 51% to 49%. Those are small margins, but they point toward the possibility of a remarkable result. A Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.

What makes Talarico’s position even more impressive is what he’s up against. Paxton has Donald Trump’s machine behind him, along with Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar checkbook. The world’s richest man has already poured almost $190 million into the contest, routed through a Senate GOP super PAC. That’s pushed combined ad spending past $500 million, putting the race on pace to be the most expensive in Senate history.

But Talarico hasn’t flinched. He’s called out the billionaire money flooding the airwaves and hammered away at Trump, Musk, and the issues that matter most to Texans. As I said months ago, the top three issues in this campaign will be costs, costs, and costs. Talarico leads Paxton on that key issue and is crushing the impeached attorney general with independents, 60% to 32%.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both call Texas a toss-up. Dan Rather might say the race is “tight as a tick.” And Texas Republicans maintain a big structural advantage. But Talarico is turning the campaign’s final corner and heading into the homestretch with momentum, a winning message, and a lead.

With Election Day less than a week away, his campaign is kicking into overdrive. If the past is prologue in this race, expect Talarico to take it to the limit one more time. And this time, it’s for the win.

CHARTS OF THE DAY

Source: Gallup poll of 1,200 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 1-19, 2026. Margin of error: ±4 percentage points

WHAT THEY SAID

Jonathan Lemire on Trump campaigning

“Those who work for Donald Trump in his second term are true believers. But the president’s been in a bubble, and his crowds, who keep laughing at all his jokes, are much smaller than they used to be. It’s working for that small group of die-hard, dedicated supporters, but it is not playing outside those rooms — and it’s not going to help Republicans next week.”

John Heilemann on DOJ vs. Alaska

“This is so far over the bright line into authoritarian regime territory. The Department of Justice is saying that if the Republican wins, they won’t challenge this case. But if anybody else wins, the result is invalid and should not be certified. That is truly remarkable, dangerous, and astonishing, all rolled into one.”

Sam Stein on Mike Johnson’s loyalty test

“Mike Johnson is going to play a critical role in whether or not we have a peaceful transfer of congressional power. If Trump believes that the elections are contested and they shouldn’t be seated, will Mike Johnson acquiesce? I’m genuinely happy there are layers of protection here, but also dismayed that it’s even got to this point.”

The post Joe Scarborough: Talarico’s position even more impressive considering what he’s up against appeared first on MS NOW.

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